Daily News Tadka- 23.05.2016

PBs twisty take on the top five headlines of the day.

1. Amma mia! Jaya’s Day 1 as CM

Free power to power looms, reducing tasmac working hours is cool, waiving crop loans, maybe. But 4 to 8 grams of gold? 100 units of power? 25-50k monetary assistance?
Along with all her new promise fulfillment, they was minor controversy with Stalin getting furious over his seating arrangements. It is a welcome change to see the leader of the opposition party attending the swearing in ceremony after a pretty long time. The Chief Minister could have shown some courtesy, a gesture that would have augured well for the state.

2. BJP seeks Kejriwal’s apology for ‘defaming’ Goa

Kejriwal is merely stating the truth and he left out mentioning the Russian and other drug Mafias. All previous regimes have to be blamed for the state of affairs in Goa, the BJP has been in power for less than 5 years, so I fail to see why they are so uptight.
Why do politician always ask other politician to apologize, may be political parties want to show public that he his wrong or vote bank policy.

3. BJP making Sonowal’s swearing a gala event

I think they are trying to send the message to the remaining North-East states about the change.
Next we will see that the opposing parties shall file a petition for expenses incurred and the press shall carry it as headline once the amount is known and debate it for days.

4. Harish Rawat Asked to Appear Before CBI in Sting Operation Probe

CBI must ensure conviction of Harish Rawat. It should not be made laughter case as happening time and again. Rawat is trying move the case out of CBI hand. Know that Mr. Narendra Modi also appeared before the SIT when he was CM of Gujarat. Why Rawat is afraid to get the clean chit after proper investigation?

5. Nitish Kumar Failed to Ensure Law and Order in Bihar, Says RJD MP

I suspect that JD(U) is trying to get back into NDA and likely to break with RJD and form a fresh NDA govt in Bihar with BJP.
This situation is continuing since last 25 years of RJD-JD(U) regime but no progress is visible in any part of state. The people are solely responsible for electing corrupt and worst governance time and again. Now both parties are blaming each other for non-development and complete anarchy in state resulted in worst suffering by people of state since nothing is moving in present government.

How DMK lost and Amma almost lost in T. Nadu?

Jayalalitha has broken the trend in Tamil Nadu and returned as CM for the second time in a row. Tamil Nadu has witnessed the most fascinating of elections of the 5 states which went to polls. While her return is significant and similar to Akalis return in 2012 in Punjab, the margin of victory (36 seats) and the vote share gap of only 1.1% has never been witnessed earlier as shown below. The state has given mammoth victories to DMK and AIADMK alternatively for the past three decades. So this was surprising.

Seat share & Vote share gap between no. 1 and no. 2 alliance in TN

In these elections AIADMK contested on a standalone basis without any allies (except few small parties who contested on its symbol). DMK as well was not able to stitch a formidable alliance. It had Congress on its side and few smaller parties. Congress influence in the state has been declining since 2009 LS polls. BJP failed to keep intact the grand alliance consisting of PMK and DMDK it had formed in LS polls.

What happened in Tamil Nadu?  

In 2011 AIADMK+ had recorded 51.8% vote share (AIADMK 38.4%, DMDK 7.9%, Left Parties 4.6%, MMK 0.5% and PT 0.4%). All of these alliance partners left and JJ couldn’t keep most of their votes with her, she could dent only 15% of their vote bank. AIADMK won 40.8% vote share in 2016 (+2.4% vs 2011).

DMK+ had recorded 39.4% vote share in 2011 (DMK 22.4%, Congress 9.3%, PMK 5.2%, KNMK 1.5%, VCK 1%). All the allies left DMK alliance this time except Congress. It managed to poach MMK and PT from AIADMK alliance. The alliance despite PMK and others moving away marginally improved its vote share to 39.7% (+0.3%). DMK registered an impressive gain of 9.3% cutting some of the exit losses, with Congress losing c.3% vote share.

PMK contesting alone held onto its 2011 vote share. BJP gained 0.6% vote share. The biggest loser was Captain’s party which I had predicted. The balloon burst and his party lost 5.5% vote share. Left parties lost 3% vote share. Majority of these losses of 8.5% were captured by DMK.

The million dollar question before polls was who PWF-DMDK alliance will impact more. Well looks this themselves. They lost massive vote share of 8.5% which was primarily taken over by DMK (70%) and to some extent by AIADMK (30%). PWF was not able to dent into vote bank of either DMK or AIADMK.

Game of Alliances

In the end, AIADMK went to polls without any allies and just managed to sneak in (almost lost). DMK couldn’t form a formidable alliance. If it managed to keep PMK or induct DMDK into its alliance they would have got the necessary fillip to break the half way mark. They had the momentum but needed an additional 2%-3% vote share from one of the smaller parties and hence lost.

There was a swing against the incumbent alliance as it has happened in the past. AIADMK+ witnessed a negative swing of 11% primarily as allies left, but this was captured primarily by others (PMK, DMDK, Left, BJP) in the end.

AIADMK continues its lead over DMK in terms of vote share but something to cheer for Stalin as well

AIADMK continued its uptick in vote share since 2001. DMK which has been losing vote share continuously from 42.1% in 1996 to 22.4% in 2011, recorded an increase of 9.3%. Stalin would be happy at this performance. After all everybody had written off DMK.

In the end a cracker of an elections, which DMK lost due to its failure to make a grand alliance and Amma almost lost by abandoning alliances. The popularity ratings of DMK got split between Stalin and Karunanidhi which also attributed to DMK’s loss.

 

 

Who will win Tamil Nadu Polls 2016?

Krishnaswamy (@kristanjore) & Politicalbaaba (@politicalbaaba)

Well, that’s a million dollar question. TN Elections 2016 has reached its climax stage with voting taking place tomorrow (16th May). We review the Tamil Nadu political Situation as of today.

History of Elections:

Seats of ADMK & DMK over the past few elections

From 1977-84 ADMK won three elections in a row, however since 1984, the state has overthrown incumbent governments and given chance to the other Dravidian major to rule the state. ADMK and DMK have ruled the state alternatively for the past 3 decades as shown below.

Vote Share of ADMK and DMK over the past few years

Vote share garnered by the two major parties show interesting trends. Since 1996 elections vote share of ADMK has witnessed an upward trend irrespective of the fact whether it won or lost elections from 21.5% in 1996 to 38.4% in 2011. On the other hand DMK’s vote share has seen a steady decline from 42.1% in 1996 to 22.4% in 2011. One of the reasons for this is that the number of seats contested by DMK has decreased over the years from 78% (182 / 234) in 1996 to 53% (124 / 234) in 2011 giving up more seats to accommodate allies.
Let see the election trends from 1991 onwards.

1991: ADMK-Cong in alliance won the polls. ADMK won on sympathy votes by publishing Amma’s picture in assembly where her saree was pulled down and Rajiv Gandhi assassination.

1996: Between 1991-96, land grabbing atrocities, blocking the road for hours together whenever JJ goes via road, Mahamaham temple tank bath episode where massive stampede happened and finally lavish money spent on her foster son marriage went against her on the back of which DMK won.

2001: Anti-incumbency against DMK due to not properly managing the economy and high inflation enabled JJ to make a comeback.

2006: JJ managed reasonably well from 2001-2006, but DMK was able to build a stronger alliance with Congress, PMK, Left parties on their side. Captain was spoiler for ADMK, as he took away sizeable chunk of neutral voters and ADMK’s votes. Karuna once again came back to power.

2011: Massive anti-incumbency against DMK and Congress central rule (corruption scandals) and poor handling of the power situation in the state, enabled JJ to make a comeback. This time she had a strong alliance with DMDK / Left parties on her side.

Elections 2016:

Unlike 2011, initially anti-incumbency against this govt. was not visible till Chennai Floods incident. ADMK govt. lethargic rescue efforts in Chennai Floods stirred up the anti-incumbency silently building up.

When the campaign started, Amma didn’t look like her previous self (impacted by her health rumours), she parroted same words, doled out freebies and her campaign is lackluster. No succession plan, alleged involvement in corruption case and sycophancy of her leaders has cast a negative impression on her campaign.

On the positives are some of her welfare schemes (Amma canteens / medicine shops etc), support from woman voters (who exceed male voters this time) and old age of her competitor Karunanidhi.

Will anti-incumbency defeat ADMK in line with trend?

DMK has not been able to form a formidable front to take on advantage of this silent brewing anti-incumbency. PMK and DMDK two formidable anti Dravidian parties having combined 13% vote share are contesting separately leading to split of anti-ADMK votes. It has Congress on its side which will help poll minority votes but Congress has more to gain from this alliance vis-à-vis DMK.

DMK chances are being impacted by:

1. PMK: PMK has a solid vote bank of 4% and they will hit DMK in North Tamil Nadu. PMK could also take some crucial 2% votes in and around Chennai, Kanchipuram and Tiruvallur District too.

2. DMDK-PWF-TMC alliance: DMDK is taking some anti-incumbency votes in North Central Tamil Nadu. PWF (Vaiko and other parties) taking anti-incumbency votes in Southern Tamil Nadu. TMC is expected to take around 1 to 2% votes in some of the Congress seats.

3. Naam Tamilar Party (NTK: Headed by Seeman): Naam Tamilar Seeman is hitting hard against DMK and Congress tending to take away 2 to 3% votes that could have otherwise gone to DMK.

4. BJP: BJP is strong in Western Tamil Nadu, that too particularly around Coimbatore Area, and in Southern Tamil Nadu around Nagercoil Region. Apart from that they had registered good votes in Hosur, Ramanathapuram area too in double digits in 2006/2011. Normally, BJP voters are more or less aligned with ADMK mindset. So increase in BJP Vote share might take some votes from ADMK. At the same time, like in 2014, BJP might take away neutral votes that could have gone to DMK due to anti-incumbency factor. So BJP getting more votes in Western region might affect DMK, whereas BJP getting votes in Towns and cities will affect ADMK too to an extent.

Leadership Tangle: Kalaignar vs Stalin CM Candidate in DMK

DMK Party Leader Kalaignar is CM Candidate. There are many youngsters and women voters who feel they could have thought of of supporting DMK, if Stalin is made as CM candidate. Even though Kalaignar (93) is still sharp with political acumen, the demographics of the state (60% population less than 35 years of age) does not help his candidature. So DMK might lose some neutral votes coming to them by projecting Kalaignar as CM Candidate. Stalin enjoys same popularity ratings as Karunanidhi and they combined have same ratings as JJ. This is one of the crucial factors which will have an impact on the outcome.

Trend of Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha Elections in the State

DMK won three elections in a row in Tamil Nadu (2004 LS, 2006 VS, 2009 LS). Can Amma continue this trend? She has won two elections in a row 2011 VS and 2014 LS? Can she make it three in a row like DMK? This trend favours ADMK. However, the bigger trend of alternative govt. in state elections hints that it is the chance of DMK to win this time.

Vote Share Analysis 2016

In elections since 1984, the period when trend of alternative governments started, DMK and ADMK have got similar average vote shares of c. 30%. In the three elections in this decade (2001-2011), ADMK average vote share is higher at 35% vs 27% for DMK. Both were able to come to power due to alliance vote bank and neutral voters shifting between these two parties. Alliance wise 45% votes should ensure victory as in 2006 for DMK+.

TN has a good proportion of 20-25% of neutral voters, who decide the fate of the election. Now with multiple 3rd fronts and their vote is not going en-block to either to DMK or ADMK, it all boils down to which way the neutral voters will shift.

In 2014 LS, ADMK got 45% and DMK around 28% votes. But this is not the correct starting point as JJ benefitted from being ahead of even Modi as best suited PM candidate in the state and got a push of 5%-7% votes compared to 2011 assembly polls because of this. Congress got c. 4% vote share.

So starting point for ADMK is 39% votes she got in 2011 polls. DMK starting point is 28% + 4 (2014 basis) or 23% + 9% (2011 basis) = 32%. So it is something like 39% vs 32% in favour of ADMK. Can DMK bridge this gap? As can be historically seen the state has witnessed massive swings in vote share of alliances compared to previous polls. This 7% gap is not difficult to bridge.

Alliance vote swings in recent years

Around 55-60 seats are very neck and neck which makes these elections evenly poised. ADMK ‘s strength is women voters and women voters are more this time than men voters. Stalin is gaining popularity on social media, urban seats traditionally strong point of DMK.

Opinion Polls add to the confusion

4 / 7 polls predict higher vote share for DMK. The only national level polling agency predicts ADMK to win. One more released today which says ADMK sweep. Pollsters are as confused. Vote Share in

Chart courtesy @chinmaykrvd

Verdict

ADMK had the advantage before the polls announced, since then DMK has made up for some lost ground. Whether it will be a landslide, or simple majority or a loss for ADMK in line with trend will be known only on May 19th. Results also depend on how well the street campaign of BJP, PWF, PMK is going to sway the voters and who they dent more. It’s a battle boiled down to each seat and results will teach a few new lessons to all pollsters. Till then enjoy!

The close Leadership contest in Tamil Nadu

Amitabh “Surykiran” Tiwari  

We have seen in recent history that “Leadership Ratings” have been the key determinant of election results across states. In TN as well the trend is visible, the party whose leader enjoys popular support goes on to win the state / Lok sabha polls as shown in table below.

Our survey (The Campaign 360) shows that Jayalalitha enjoys the highest support at 36% with Karunanidhi and Stalin tied at second spot at 18%. The maverick Vijaykanth is at third slot with 11%. On a combined basis, father and son dup enjoy similar ratings as JJ. This is going to be one of the key factors which will determine the outcome of the polls as there is no clue available from these ratings. This is what makes this elections very interesting and difficult for analysts to predict.

Only 48% of voters who prefer Jayalalitha as CM said they were satisfied with her government’s performance. A big 33% were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied with her govt. performance. 79% of the voters who prefer Stalin are very active on social media, the corresponding number for Vijaykanth was low at 31%. 23% of Vijaykanth supporters are not likely to vote for PWF alliance.  Jayalalitha maintains her lead among women voters with 45% preferring her as CM, father-son duo combined lag behind at 34%.

 

41% of the youth sampled (age group 18-29) prefer Stalin and Karunanidhi (combined) as CM versus Jayalalitha (29%) and Vijaykanth (19%). Amongst low (<Rs. 10,000 pm)), middle (Rs. 10,000-50,000 pm) and high income groups (> Rs. 50,000 pm) both Jayalalitha and Stalin & Karunanidhi combined enjoy similar support.

9% of the total sample comprises of undecided voters. They could determine the outcome of these elections. Karunanidhi and Stalin combined enjoy a lead of 5% over Jayalalitha amongst undecided voters for preferred CM candidate.

39% of voters of BJP prefer Jayalalitha as CM candidate which exhibits that party lacks a credible face to take on Dravidian forces in the state. This is also due to the fact that AIADMK is considered to be closer to BJP ideology in T. Nadu. If majority of these voters switch sides on the day of polls not wanting to waste their votes on a losing horse, it could tilt the scales in favour of AIADMK.

The Corruption twist in the TN election

Subhash Chandra and Hari Kasula

For the first time in political tracking, Campaign360 launched a series of online studies that will be used to asses how context of the election changes over the course of the campaign season and predict the elections in Tamil Nadu. What is the hypothesis?

Past elections have shown that voting swings are consistent across all voting segments, the only thing that differs is the scale of the swing. Case in point is 2014 election. In almost every voting block, the BJP gained. It gained the most amongst urban voters but the swing was quite high even amongst rural voters. This experiment could of course dispel our hypothesis, which is also fine because there would certainly be something to learn.

One of the interesting things that we were doing in parallel was, we were using our partner, Quickmetrix.com’s digital listening tool to understand the trends on social media conversations around the Tamil Nadu elections. Irrespective of the final outcome, this experiment has already yielded some interesting findings including quantifying the electoral context.

Our survey of 3rd week of April (Sample 600, Facebook users only) yielded the following priority of issues

Corruption was ranked as no.1 followed by prohibition, money power, electricity and governance. What we also found is that corruption had a different impact on each of the parties. For example, amongst those who felt corruption was the No.1 issue, DMK’s vote shares were marginally higher than their share in the overall sample. AIADMK on the other hand, lost significant share amongst this group. The gainers were BJP and PWF. In other words, amongst those who felt corruption was a major issue (probably anti-AIADMK), a large proportion of the anti-incumbency was being captured by PWF and BJP. Of course, this is a digital savvy voter and from an offline perspective, the % of respondents who may think corruption is important may be much smaller and therefore the relative losses for AIADMK and gains for BJP and PWF will be much smaller

Now, here is the fascinating part. While listening to voters on social media, we found that the issues being discussed were quite different from the issues that emerged in the survey. Employment was the no1. factor followed by law and order and women.

When we measured the sentiment at that moment, the AIADMK enjoyed a favorable sentiment, followed by the DMK, PWF and BJP

Now, as the campaign intensified after May 1st, both the BJP and PWF attacked both the DMK and AIADMK on corruption. What happened to the issues? Both corruption and the economy surged in terms of discussion.

The interesting observation one could make out from the above chart is –  people’s perception of what is the number one issue of the state over course of 3 weeks. About 3 to 4 weeks ahead of the election day, the top issue was Employment followed by Law and Order. But A week before the election, Corruption and Economy became the top issues. Clearly, this indicates that as the campaigns gets momentum and elections day comes closer, people tend to worry about community issues ( Corruption and Economy ) more than individual issues (Employment). PWF and BJP were in a way successful in driving that context to a point that they could hurt AIADMK and DMK more.

What happened to sentiment versus the parties?

As we saw in the second chart, AIADMK was the biggest loser and both the BJP and PWF gained significantly.

It is clear that corruption as topic is likely to cause significant damage to both the AIADMK and DMK. The challenge for the PWF and BJP was to make this a headline topic, a very difficult task indeed.  It is also likely that issues around unemployment and the economy had a negative impact on the AIADMK given that TN was suffering from high degree of unemployment amongst the educated class.

Further, the net negative perceptions of AIADMK and DMK are growing as they get close to election day. On the Contrary, BJP and PWF minimizing their negative perceptions. This is predominantly due to the campaign context is driving more towards community issues like Corruption and Economy than towards Individual issues like Employment. Although it is a Herculean task for either BJP or PWF to upset both AIADMK and DMK, they both have good chances of denying AIADMK and DMK a clear majority in the number of seats.

It is unclear how this will play out on election day. Our next survey and comparison with offline exit polls will yield rich lessons on our methodology and experiment and have future implications on how exit polls are carried out. We intend to share our raw data files of both our waves in the public domain on the 16th, data geeks can happily play with the data for free.

Prospects of BJP in Tamil Nadu Elections 2016

Author: Krishnaswamy (@kristanjore) & Politicalbaaba (@politicalbaaba)        

Background / Performance in LS Polls 2014

In 2014 Lok Sabha Polls, NDA which included (BJP, MDMK, DMDK, PMK , IJK, New Justice Party) were able to get 19.5% vote share. BJP contested in 9 seats and DMDK contested in 14 big Parliament seats. BJP got 5.5% votes and DMDK got 5.2% out of 19.5%.

Failure to hold onto alliances for state polls

Back in later half of 2014, Amit Shah has asked TN BJP to get 66 Lakh members, appoint Election booth agent etc. However TN BJP could not do effective membership Campaign. Their missed call membership program went flat. Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan, who is a ground level worker, along with few other leaders hit the ground and try to improve the membership. However their lack of knowledge on central Govt schemes, failure to take those schemes to the people also hit the TN BJP hard.

Modi’s silence on Cauvery water issue affected them as well. On top of it, BJP failed to take advantage of Jayalalitha’s conviction, they did badly in Srirangam bypoll. Whenever local unit Opposed ADMK, Central ministers keep visiting her causing the great confusion among the voters. JJ snubbed TN BJP president by not inviting her for swearing ceremony in 2015, but Central minister Pon.R attended that function. This gave the image of TN BJP and central BJP not in sync with each other.

There are few local leaders who wanted ADMK alliance and there are few others who were looking for DMK alliance and finally, only few wanted to lead a 3rd front like in LS Polls despite moderate success in those polls.

BJP failed to resolve the DMDK, PMK tussle on CM Candidate. BJP also did not have any CM Face. H.Raja could have been projected. But his straight forward image and him being a Brahmin leader, which is considered as a taboo in TN, stopped him from being projected.

Many BJP supporters preferred Nirmala Seetharaman as CM Candidate. But it looks Central BJP and state BJP were not at all interested in this and not ready to listen to their supporters.

However, Central BJP was firm on 2 things:

1. Not accepting Anbumani as CM candidate owning to his past corruption cases and not having clean image.

2. Not blindly accepting to All the demands of Captain (similar to 2014).

So BJP dragged this issue of PMK, DMDK alliance talks for long time.

Attempt to strike a deal with DMK as well as AIADMK failed

Then came the googly from Subramanian swamy on BJP-DMK alliance, that has caused some more damages, where DMK refuted that talks in the media, whereas real talk happened backdoor.

Then Central BJP  tried alliance talks with Jayalalitha. Again few TN BJP Leaders accepted this in media, but ADMK rejected that. BJP again blinked and became laughing stock.

Finally BJP decides to go by local leadership decision

Finally, Central BJP gave up and decided to go by TN BJP way.  TN BJP known for poor negotiations and denied of Election funding from Central unit, has given high 45 seats to IJK (which is sufficiently funded).  TN BJP has further given Devanathan Party another 24 seats.

Now BJP filed their nomination in 156 seats. Out of this their candidate’s nomination was rejected in Pennagaram where Anbumani is contesting. So now effectively BJP is contesting in 155 Seats only.

Can it open its account in these elections?

Having lost the momentum between May 2014 and Apr 2016, BJP is now seen running from pillar to post, but it has lot of miles to cover, which is not possible in 2016.

At times, BJP gave the image, that they are contesting for “Naam ke vaaste” (Namesake). But with many tireless dedicated BJP Cadres, some of the BJP candidates are really doing some ground work to improve BJP’s vote share.

BJP Seat Share and Vote Share in Last 5 Elections

Let’s take a look at some of the important Constituencies, where BJP has chance to finish 2nd or 3rd. Please remember, if BJP can pull of any one or 2 of the below top 5 Constituencies, really we can see, there is a undercurrent among the TN voters for BJP, in spite of their many mistakes.

1. Coimbatore South: Coimbatore is heart of Kongu Region (Western TamilNadu). Vanathi Srinivasan, the candidate is TN Vice president. She is doing Brilliant and innovative campaign. Coimbatore South is also Strong constituency for BJP. There is tremendous support for her in campaigns. Amit Shah also campaigned. But Prime Minister Modi did not campaign in Coimbatore, which has led to a big disappointment among Kongu Region. She is almost sure to end up for 2^nd place. But can she knock ADMK which is very strong in Kongu belt on Election day? Only time will answer.

2. Vedharanyam: This little known town is historically famous for Dhandi March. Rajaji has taken the Dhandi March in this small town only. This town is also a part of history and in memories of Famous Tamil Novel “Ponniyin Selvan” by Kalki. Here the candidate is Mr.VedaRathinam who is 3 time former DMK MLA. Vedarathinam was MLA from 1996 to 2011. In 2011, this constituency was given to PMK and he left DMK. He joined BJP in 2015. Known for his Clean image, Vedarathinam is giving tough fight to ADMK candidate O.S.Maniyan, whom he defeated in 2006. NaMo’s Campaign on May 11th also might give some edge to him.

3. Killiyoor: This belongs to Kanyakumari Parliamentary seat of P. Radhakrishna (MP). This constituency is also BJP’s stronghold and also Pon. Vijay is former 3 times MLA. (1977, 1980 from Janata Party and 1989 as independent). It looks he was in Congress for some time in between 2004-2010 and has now joined in BJP.

4. VilavanCode: Again this is from Kanyakumari Nagercoil region. Even though it appears, Congress sitting MLA Vijayadharini has advantage due to DMK alliance, BJP can finish 2nd.

5. Thiyagaraya Nagar(Chennai), popularly Called T.Nagar: This is a Central Retail Business hub. This constituency has reasonable number of Brahmin votes (West Mambalam area). This place is affected heavily during Chennai floods. With Clean image of H.Raja, good campaign he is giving ADMK Candidate Sathya run for his money. Sathya also has some land grabbing issue. DMK’s Kanimozhi (Former MP Somu’s daughter) also not looking that much strong.

In the seats below, BJP can finish 2nd or 3rd.

6. Padmanabhapuram: Nagercoil Parliament Seat. BJP won here on its own in 1996. BJP has good 20% votes and may end up 2nd here.

7. Hosur: Sudden Dark horse came into the race just few days ago, Hosur never elected any Dravidian parties MLA so far since 1977. Traditionally Congress won every time except 1996, when Janata Dal (part of MDMK) won. On the nomination day, suddenly there was a good crowd of 800-1000 people in the nomination rally, which nobody expected. BJP got 10% votes in 2006 and 2011.

Also, “Thali” near-by constituency which was won by Left Party Ramachandran see sudden surge of BJP votes.

So sensing some opportunity, PM Modi campaigned here. He did the campaign in 2011.

8.Nagercoil: The candidate here is M.R.Gandhi. Gandhi sir is a veteran and having clean image. Now with Pon.R as Minister might help him.  But DMK’s strong man Suresh Rajan fights here, Gandhi might come 3rd . He has slight chance to finish 2nd.

Apart from these 8 seats, BJP has good chance to improve their vote share in Mettupalayam, Coimbatore North, SingaNallur, KoundanPalayam, Soolur, KinaththuKadavu, Colachel, Kanniyakumari, Virugambakkam, Pattukkottai and Palladam.

Apart from these seats, BJP has good prospects to get above 5% votes in Kolathur, (K.T.Raghavan known face against Stalin), Tambaram (Vedha), Chennai Egmore (Maa Venkatesan writer on Hindutva Ambedkar),  Alandur  and Velachery.

From BJP alliance, IJK expected to do well in few central TN assembly constituencies.

To sum up, BJP may end up getting a couple of seats and NDA as a whole 2-5 odd seats with vote share of c.5%. It has only itself to blame for this state of affairs. It failed to capture the good vibe it created in LS polls due to Modi factor. PWF may end up getting more seats / vote share than NDA. Missed chance. It should have lead Third Front like in LS polls.

Related posts:

1. Can Amma overturn the trend? – Blog (PB)

2. Does Jayalalithaa have a chance of coming back as Tamil Nadu CM? – India Today Dailyo (PB + SC)

3. The Love Hate Relationship between BJP & Amma – India Today DailyO (PB)

Daily News Tadka – 09.04.2016

PBs twisty take on the top five headlines of the day.

1. BJP is ‘Bhayanak Jaali Party’, says Mamata; dares Modi to arrest her

Some times truth can be too bitter to swallow and Didi is defenseless with an avalanche of misdeeds. Comments on BJP appears to be hollow and has no takers.  A large chunk of Indians are either rural poor or urban poor, about 40% now that is a huge chunk of 1.2 billion and in thickly populated states like waste Bengal the split between immigrant people from neighboring countries pose a huge danger of contaminating these state elections.

2. Jayalalithaa announces prohibition in Tamil Nadu if AIADMK voted back to power

Apart from monetary welfare,Amma thought of social measure because consuming liquor affects badly on health of poor people. Really well come step because it helps to middle and low income group.

3. Banks reject Vijay Mallya, KFA’s offer to repay Rs 4,000 crore, call it unacceptable

The consortium of banks has sought the presence of Mallya in the country to show his bonafide that he is serious in settling his dues. The repayment offer in the Supreme Court was submitted by Mallya, Kingfisher Airlines, United Breweries Holdings and Kingfisher Finvest India. But the banks told the court on Thursday that the offer was unacceptable.

4.  Kollam temple fire: 110 dead

Calamity in the midst of religious celebration, that too in the early morning hours, just as dawn was about to break through to dispel the dark hours of the night. Ironically, precious lives have been lost and this time, spiritual and mental darkness has crept in to so many families. Most unfortunate and heart rending.

5. Phase 2 polls in Assam and Kerala

The holding of a single day poll in three states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry are welcome. The holding of a two day poll in Assam in two phases on April 4 and 11 may be OK. The gap between the two day polls should have been reduced. The counting of votes should be taken up by April 15 and results declared instead of waiting till the polls in the other states are over.

Tamil Nadu: Can Amma overturn the trend?

Tamil Nadu goes to polls in April – May of this year along with Assam, West Bengal and Kerala. Politicalbaaba (PB) will cover the elections in detail with analytical insightful reports and feedback from the ground.

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Tamil Nadu like Kerala has witnessed a trend since the past three decades (1984) of voting out the incumbent government. The politics of Tamil Nadu has revolved around the two Dravidian parties – DMK and AIADMK. AIADMK and DMK have taken turns alternatively to rule the government for every five years.

Other parties in the state: national – BJP, Congress & Left and state DMDK, PMK & MDMK have allied with the either of these two parties to fight polls in earlier elections.

The biggest question this time is: Will the trend continue and DMK come back to power? Initial reports suggest that trend might be broken and Amma may be able to retain her CM chair. However, this also depends upon how the alliances shape up. Captain Vijaykanth has kept everyone guessing and finally made a decision to go alone.

Six cornered contest

1. AIADMK with Vasan’s Tamil Manila Congress – strong presence among upper castes, Edayars, SCs
2. DMK with Congress – strong foothold among Vanniyars and minorities (Muslims & Christians)
3. Left with MDMK (Vaiko) and VCK – strong presence among Dalits, Telugu Naickers, SCs/STs
4. BJP – strong presence in Kanyakumari
5. DMDK (Vijaykanth) – strong presence in Kongu belt and Naidu community
6. PMK (Ramadoss) – strong support among Vanniyars

Will this help AIADMK as the anti-Jaya votes get split?

Demographics of the state

1. Tamil Nadu has 234 assembly seats – 188 general category and 46 reserved for SC/ST.
2. 52% of the population lives in rural areas which is much lower than national average of 69%.
3. Hindus account for 88% of state population, Muslims 5.5% and Christians 6%. SC/ST account for 21% of the population.
4. Minorities and Vanniyars have traditionally backed Karunaniidhi’s DMK.
5. State has a high literacy rate (80.3% vs national average of 74%) and people below poverty line are only 11.3% vs national average of 22%.

2011 State Elections

The main contest as always was between the two grand alliances led by Dravidian parties. Left front which was part of DMK led alliance in 2006 shifted sides to AIADMK, while VCK which was with Jayalalitha in 2006 shifted sides to Karunanidhi. DMDK which fought 2006 polls alone without winning a single seat but garnering 8%+ vote share joined AIADMK led alliance.

In 2011, in line with the trend, the alliance led by AIADMK / Jayalalitha comprising of DMDK, Left Front, PT and MMK won 203 / 234 seats bagging 51.8% vote share. AIADMK won 150 (38.4%) and DMDK won 29 seats (7.9%).

Within months relations between DMDK and AIADMK soured and Vijaykanth left the alliance to become Leader of Opposition. Jaya didn’t need him as she had ample majority along with Left parties. This situation was similar to West Bengal wherein Mamata defeated Left in alliance with Congress and later dumped it when she got absolute majority on its own.

DMK led alliance consisting of Congress and PMK won 31 seats only bagging 39.4% vote share. DMK received a drubbing similar to Congress in LS 2014, couldn’t even get the LOP status. In one-third of the total number of districts DMK alliance drew a blank. In urban seats considered as DMK strongholds, alliance tally came down from 28 seats in 2006 to 3 in 2011.

Though DMK led alliance lost vote share amongst all classes, the highest losses were recorded amongst poor class (from 47% to 33%). Amongst caste, AIADMK alliance gained across communities, highest being Mudallars (+23%) and STs (+31%). DMK lost vote share across caste groups except for Thevars, Vanniyars, Mulims and SCs.

Surprisingly 66% of the population was satisfied with DMK govt. performance still DMK lost badly. The reasons were many:

1. Jayalalitha led the popularity ratings by 12% (47% vs 35% of Karunanidhi).
2. While people felt condition of roads, drinking water supply, quality of education and medical facilities improved during DMK tenure vs AIADMK tenure, more than half respondents were not happy with the electricity supply. This also contributed to the loss as 17% listed it as one the main issues of the elections.
3. Finally the corruption scams of UPA II – 2G scam also dented Karunanidhi popularity (38%).

Ultimately deft alliances formed by Jayalalitha, corruption scams of DMK ministers in UPA II and trend led to the defeat of DMK.

Seats of Major Parties in Last 5 Elections

Vote Share of Last 5 Elections of Various Parties

2014 Lok Sabha Polls

In Lok Sabha despite Modi wave Amma held onto her fort bagging 37/39 seats and recording vote share of 44.9% (+6.5% compared to assembly polls). DMK drew a blank though it gained 1.5% vote share. BJP and PMK one seat each. BJP formed a grand alliance with DMDK, PMK and MDMK. All of them have now left NDA. AIADMK was leading in 217 / 234 seats.

Jayalalitha was the most preferred PM candidate slightly ahead of Modi. The anger of the people against the UPA government of which DMK was a part of for 10 years and the visible infighting amongst the first family led to DMK’s resounding defeat.

So who will win in 2016?

This is the elections which among the four states which are going to polls is the most difficult to predict. On one side is the trend. People have for the past three decades voted out the incumbent govt. in Tamil Nadu. On the other side is no significant anti-incumbency visible on the ground. Jayalalitha’s conviction in disproportionate assets case and poor handling of the Chennai floods situation could harm her prospects.

Opinion polls show AIADMK ahead marginally. Her Amma canteen and other schemes have been a hit, but trend may over-weigh on her prospects. Split of anti-AIADMK votes may help her though. All in all a riveting contest…

DMK won in 2006 vidhan sabha and 2009 lok sabha but lost in 2014. AIADMK won in 2011 and 2014, will it lose in 2016? Allies left DMK in 2011 and contributed to its defeat. In a similar fashion prominent allies of Jayalalitha have left the alliance. Is all this indicating towards repetition of the trend? Only time will tell…

 

 

Daily News Tadka -18.01.2016

PBs twisty take on the top five headlines of the day.

1. AAP fears attack on Kejriwal – Drama to get Z+ security!

AAP after ink attack has alleged that it was art of a “big rehearsal” to possibly “physically harm” Arvind in future. Delhi police in connivance with Center is deliberately providing lax security. Party also referred to history of political assassinations in India including former Prime Ministers Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Punjab CM Beant Singh.

This is clearly part of bigger strategy to deflect criticism from taking security while Arvind promised in election rallies he doesn’t need cover. Its also part of a strategy to pressurize govt. to provide him Z+ security. Z+ is a status symbol and which politician doesn’t like it.

2. Is Smriti Irani CM face for BJP in UP assembly polls? – She’s good but bahari (outsider)!

The name of Smriti Irani is doing the rounds as CM candidate of UP. UP polls in 2017 are being touted as semi-final to LS polls to be held in 2019. She gave a tough contest to Rahul Gandhi in Amethi, and if her name was announced a bit earlier she might have actually won as well as per some commentators. She is an aggressive campaigner and being a woman would help to take on main competitor Mayawati.

I would say that as a first step BJP realizing that they need a CM candidate to win in UP is a good sign and a departure from their previous stand. I have always maintained they need a leader to take on Mulayam and Maya. The only problem with Irani is she could be branded as an outsider!

3. Dalit Suicide Case – Can India get over its caste prejudice?

Police have charged Union minister Bandaru Dattatreya with abetting the suicide, University of Hyderabad vice-chancellor Appa Rao and two Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad leaders in a case for abetment of suicide. Caste is cast in stone in India and lower class has been badly treated across generations and states.

Blaiming BJP for such incidents is not fair. Its just a case of heightened intolerance debate that you blame everything on BJP. How can the party which won on massive support of Dalits across the country in Lok Sabha alienate them. This suicide is a social issue and we need to look within as to what is going wrong in the society.

4. Coal India output to hit record 550 million tonnes in fiscal 2016 – Good show by Piyush Agarwal!

The state-run miner is set for a record production of 550 million tonnes (MT) this fiscal (+9%). This has resulted in the decline in imports and savings by Rs. 17000 crore (USD 2.5 billion). The increased production has not only resulted in enhanced energy production but also increased stock of coal with power plants (24 days vs 3-7 earlier).

This is good show by state miner which has been dealing with production inefficiencies and labour problem for quite some years now. The decline in price of coal (-18% in 2015) actually reduces the impact of savings in imports, else it would have been to the tune of USD 3b. Piyush is one of the silent star performers in the Cabinet.

5. Karunanidhi appears in defamation case by Jayalalithaa – Old rivalry, when will it end!

A sessions court adjourned till 10th March the next hearing in the defamation case filed against DMK chief M Karunanidhi by Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa. Karunanidhi, 92, appeared before the court and has been granted exemption from personal appearance for the next date. He was kept just about 30 seconds inside the court. Why was he called in the first place then?

AIADMK and DMK are the key players in this year’s state polls. Since 1984 both parties have alternatively ruled the state for 5 years each. This time its DMK’s turn. Will the trend be broken this time is the biggest question?

It brings us to our court processes again and why do they take such a long time to clear cases. What purpose did this short hearing serve? Does it make sense that the accused and the accuser are both not required to be in the court in proceedings. Anyways you can’t question judiciary!

With inputs from Risha Bhattacharya!

All India Projections Lok Sabha 2014 (Revised)

The final All India Politicalbaaba Projections for Lok Sabha 2014 is out. Polls begin next week and as model code of conduct comes into being opinion polls will be banned. 2014 is expected to throw a hung Parliament in line with elections since 1989.

Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to emerge as the largest alliance with 230 seats (up 99 seats from 2009). The alliance includes among others Shiv Sena (Maharashtra), Akali Dal (Punjab), MDMK / PMK / DMDK (Tamil Nadu) and Lok Janshakti Party (Bihar). BJP is expected to record its best tally ever with ~200 seats.

NDA is expected to do well in Uttar Pradesh (38; +28 from last time), Maharashtra (28; +8), Gujarat (21; +6), Madhya Pradesh (23; +7), Rajasthan (20; +16) and Bihar (20; +8). Majority of its seats (150) are expected to come from these 6 states which is predominantly Hindi speaking / understanding belt. Here Modi wave is strong. Modi’s Other Backward Caste (OBC) factor would also work here. NDA’s seats would double in these six states compared to 2009 despite losing  big ally in Janata Dal (United) which had bagged 20 seats last time.

Seats could go up if the alliance sweeps UP and Bihar. Among other states NDA is expected to sweep Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. It has a tough fight up its sleeve in Punjab. In Punjab its NDA which is fighting anti-incumbency against its Akali Dal led state govt. Plus a united Congress here would prevent a sweep and scores would be balance here. NDA is expected to throw a surprise in Tamil Nadu with 8 seats. The alliance with Vaiko, Ramadoss, Vijaykanth is strong and it would emerge as the second largest combination ahead of DMK. The grand alliance there is a deliberate ploy by BJP to corner Amma who declined to enter into a pre-poll alliance. Modi has held many rallies in North Eastern states and I would not be surprised if they do well there as well. In Karnataka re-entry of Yeddyurappa has changed equations and BJP will score more than Congress though lesser than 2009 performance.

Poor candidate selection, over reliance on Modi and severe infighting among top party leaders is one of the main reasons why BJP is expected to get a majority on their own. As camapign heats up, undecided voters may tilt towards NDA due to TINA (there is no alternative) factor and NDA may even end up getting 250 seats on its own.

United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Congress is expected to get 112 seats (half of what it got in 2009). UPA consists of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) National Conference (NC), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). The alliance has been hit severely by desertions mainly of Trinamool Congress (TMC) and DMK.  Further its inability to forge alliances with Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will also impact its prospects. The rule of UPA I & II has been engulfed with record corruption scams, high inflation, unemployment, complete halt of economic growth and weak leadership. There is huge anti-incumbency against Congress which is the reason it will be trounced. Congress is set to record its lowest tally ever with ~90 seats.

UPA is losing seats in Uttar Pradesh (-12), Andhra Pradesh (-28), Haryana (-9), Rajasthan (-16), Delhi (-7), Kerala (-8) and Maharashtra (-11). In Seemandhra it is losing to the state parties YSR Congress & Telugu Desam Party (TDP) because of bifurcation of Telangana. In Telangana it will compete with TRS and BJP to get credit for creation of state. In Delhi Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will ruin it while farmer suicides and Vadra land deals will nail it in Maharashtra and Haryana respectively. Only in the state of Karnataka perhaps it will do better than last time.

Third Front has been grounded before it took off. The Communists were trying to prop up the front but seat sharing talks with Jaya broke down in Tamil Nadu. Plus Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) were not to keen.

Left Front is expected to bag 30 seats (W. Bengal, Kerala and Tripura), AIADMK 25 seats in Tamil Nadu, Mamata’s TMC 25 seats in Bengal and debutante AAP 11 seats. TDP and Jagan’s YSR Congress will sweep Seemandhra. Samajwadi Party (-10) and Janata Dal (United) (-14) will receive a drubbing. Biju Janata Dal will continue its dominance in Odisha. TRS will gain in Telangana as it is credited with creation of the state. Others combined will get 201 seats up 14 from last time. However, they are not a united block and all of them will decide their independent course of action.

State / UT	Seats	UPA	NDA	Others	SP	BSP	JDU	Left	BJD	AIADMK	YSR	TDP	AAP	TRS	TMC
Arunachal Pradesh	2	1	1
Assam	14	8	4	2
Bihar	40	12	20	0			8
Jharkhand	14	3	9	2
Goa	2	0	2
Gujarat	26	5	21
Haryana	10	1	6	1									2
Himachal Pradesh	4	1	3
Jammu & Kashmir	6	3	1	2
Karnataka	28	11	14	2									1
Kerala	20	5	1	0				14
Madhya Pradesh	29	6	23
Chattisgarh	11	3	8
Maharashtra	48	14	28	4									2
Manipur	2	2	0
Meghalaya	2	2	0
Mizoram	1	1	0
Nagaland	1	1	0
Orissa	21	3	2						16
Punjab	13	6	7
Rajasthan	25	5	20
Sikkim	1	1	0
Seemandhra	25	0	0	1							14	10
Tamil Nadu	39	0	8	6						25
Telangana	17	5	3	1										8
Tripura	2	0	0					2
UP	80	9	38	2	12	18							1
Uttarakhand	5	1	4
West Bengal	42	1	1					15							25
Andaman	1	0	1
Daman & Diu	1	0	1
Dadra&Nagar	1	0	1
Delhi	7	0	3										4
Pondicherry	1	1	0
Lakshadweep	1	1	0
Chandigarh	1	0	0										1
Total	543	112	230	23	12	18	8	31	16	25	14	10	11	8	25
In 2009	543	225	131	50	22	21	22	22	14	9	0	6	0	2	19

Battleground for Lok Sabha: Key Political Parties – AIADMK

All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) was formed in 1972 by M.G. Ramachandran as a breakaway faction of the the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The party has strong presence in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry. Tamil Nadu is an important state accounting for 39 Lok Sabha seats (7% of Lok Sabha). It has formed govt. in T. Nadu six times. Jayalalithaa (fondly called as Amma) has been the undisputed leader of the party since early 1990s and has been CM of the state four times. The party has 9 members in the current Lok Sabha.

Election Symbol

For the past 30 years or so, people of T. Nadu have followed a very predictable pattern and given chance to AIADMK / DMK (the two major state parties) on an alternative basis to form state govt.

1984 – AIADMK, 1989 – DMK, 1991 – AIADMK, 1996 – DMK, 2001 – AIADMK, 2006 – DMK, 2011 – AIADMK

The party was earlier with NDA. However, the Vajpayee govt. in 1999 fell due to AIADMK withdrawing its support. Her party has not been in any Central govt. since then.

The party has joined Third Front and is tying up with Communist Party of India (CPI) for Lok Sabha elections in Tamil Nadu. CPI has pledged support to her for Prime Ministerial candidate.

Historical Performance of AIADMK in Tamil Nadu (Lok Sabha)

	1977	1980	1984	1989	1991	1996	1998	1999	2004	2009
Seats Won	17	2	12	11	11	0	18	10	0	9
% of T.N. Seats	43.6%	5.1%	30.8%	28.2%	28.2%	0.0%	46.2%	25.6%	0.0%	23.1%

The state elections trend is not visible in Lok Sabha though. After 1998 in each successive election it has got less seats than it’s rival DMK.

Possibilities in Next Lok Sabha Elections

Corruption cases against DMK ministers (2G scam), imminent split in party with Karunanidhi suspending his son Azhagiri, DMK’s refusal to ally with Congress all point to a good performance from AIADMK in this Lok Sabha polls. Surveys predicting 25-35 seats. Politicalbaaba projects 27 seats for AIADMK.

(i)  In case BJP is not in a position to form govt., she might emerge as PM candidate of Third Front with outside support of Congress & Left parties, as AIADMK is likley to emerge as the 3rd largest party in Lok Sabha. (probability low).

(ii) In case BJP is within a striking distance of forming govt. and needs allies. AIADMK may or may not support NDA, depending upon situation and their deal with BJP.  Amma is very unpredictable.

Jayalalitha throws hat in the ring for Prime Ministership

AIADMK’s Jayalalitha has raised her hand up to be counted as a contender for Prime Minister post. So there is competition for Modi and Rahul. She has joined Third Front which consists of 11 parties – CPM, CPI, Forward Bloc, RSP, Assam Gana Parishad, Janata Dal (United), Janata Dal (Secular), Samajwadi Party, AIADMK, Biju Janata Dal (BJD), and Jharkhand Vikas Morcha. Essentially the group is of 8 parties with Left Front a front within the front. These parties together account for 92 Lok Sabha seats currently. As per Politicalbaaba projections they are expected to win ~100 seats. Though, the Front has not formally announced their PM candidate, Left Front which is amongst the largest constituent has promised suppport to Amma for PM. This is a setback of sorts for BJP which expected AIADMK to support it post polls. Though this is still possible and cannot be completely ruled out.

Why Amma agreed to be part of Third Front which is full of tall egoist leaders like Mulayam, Nitish, Deve Gowda and faces a lot of internal contradictions?

Jaya is a smart politician. She knows the limitations / contradictions of Left Front and the fact that some leaders are not reliable. Mulayam, Nitish, Gowda would never allow her to be PM as they all themselves have PM ambitions. So why did she agree to be part of this Front and rub BJP (which is likely to form govt. as per majority of surveys) the wrong way before polls. After all it is in the interest of state parties to have cordial relations with the Center. Plus Amma is perceived as a friend of Modi, they both attend each other’s swearing in ceremonies.

Amma the shrewd politician she is, knows fully well that AIADMK is going to be the largest party of the Third Front along with Left parties. Left parties would not be interested in govt. formation like in 1996. Plus they are backing her. Mulayam, Nitish, Deve Gowda all are expected to register decline in seats, so they would not be as powerful as they are currently (in terms of no. of seats). Naveen too wouldn’t like to head a khicdi govt. So she would emerge as the undisputed leader of the Front. If Mulayam / Nitish fume they would not get ministries.

So she has taken a punt. She has nothing to lose.

Possibilities for Amma

Punt that BJP / NDA would not get majority on their own. Even surveys predict that NDA could be 50 seats short of majority, so others (excluding BJP) would get 320 seats. In that situation all anti Modi / anti BJP parties could be brought under one umbrella by Congress is what she anticipates. Third Front could form govt. with support of Congress and Others and she could emerge as PM. Here she is assuming that Maya and Mamata will fall in line as they would get less seats than AIADMK and Congress would take lead to bring them to fold.

If this doesn’t happen, she doesn’t lose anything. She remains CM of Tamil Nadu. At the max BJP / NDA govt. would not take her in and some of her MPs would not become Cabinet Ministers. So what! This is her party. Dreams of other members have been sacrificed by dream of their supreme leader.

As regards cordial relationship with Center, she has been anti-Congress and has been running state govt. with a showdown with the center. So she doesn’t care. Infact she would try to gain sympathy by saying that central govt. is anti T. Nadu.

She has dreams to become PM. She feels it is her best chance. So she is giving it her best shot…….