2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will BJP get? (Revised)


Politicalbaaba had estimated 220 seats for NDA on Jan.16, 2014 up from 205 projected in Sep. 2013, link below.

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/16/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-bjp-win/

Post the projections, new allies have joined NDA and BJP has announced its PM candidate will be fighting from Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh. These two factors are expected to increase NDA’s tally and take it closer to the half-way mark of 272.

New Allies:

(i) Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party joined NDA in Bihar. The party has good command over “Dusadh” community votebank with 6.75% vote share in last assembly elections. They have been given 7 seats out of 40. This tie up is expected to add another 4 seats to NDA tally.

(ii) PMK and DMDK two regional outfits in Tamil Nadu have joined alliance. Both Ramadoss and Vijaykanth have good clout in the state with DMDK emerging as the 2nd largest party behind AIADMK and ahead of DMK in the recently concluded state assembly polls. With Vaiko’s MDMK already in, the grand alliance is expected to bag 8 seats (+5 seats from last projections).

Modi’s candidature from Varanasi

BJP has announced that Modi will contest from Uttar Pradesh seat of Varanasi. UP sends the maximum MPs to Lok Sabha (80). This is likely to have a positive impact on 32 seats in Purvanchal, 16 seats in Avadh and 16 seats in Bihar (area in and around Varanasi). This is likley to add 8 seats to NDA’s kitty (38 vs 30 earlier).

Some other minor adjustments have been made to the numbers and NDA is now expected to win 230 seats as per Politicalbaaba, up from 220 projected in Jan. 2014.

The NDA could on its own win 250+ seats as Modi wave nears the polling dates. What is holding me back is the fact that there is a lot of internal fighting within BJP which could harm its prospects. Internal dissidence and internal sabotage by group opposing Modi would cost it dear. Plus BJP has lately been admitting all and sundry into the party (Ram Kirpal Yadav in Bihar, Jagdambika Pal in UP, Rao Inderjit Singh in Gurgaon etc.), this has not gone down with sections of party cadre and they are accusing party of giving tickets to outsiders. This will hamper NDA’s chances. Drama over Advani’s insistence to fight from Bhopal and later being coaxed to fight from Gandhinagar proves this point that all is not well within the party.

The fact that BJP tried to cosy upto Raj Thackeray’s party while having an official alliance with his cousin Uddhav’s party Shiv Sena has not gone well with the partner. This could hamper chances in Maharashtra.

State / UT Seats 1999 2009 2014
Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 0 1
Assam 14 2 4 4
Bihar 40 23 12 20
Jharkhand 14 8 8
Goa 2 2 1 2
Gujarat 26 20 15 21
Haryana 10 5 0 5
Himachal Pradesh 4 3 3 3
Jammu & Kashmir 6 2 0 1
Karnataka 28 7 19 14
Kerala 20 0 0 1
Madhya Pradesh 29 29 6 23
Chattisgarh 11 10 8
Maharashtra 48 28 20 28
Manipur 2 0 0 0
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0
Mizoram 1 0 0 0
Nagaland 1 0 0 0
Orissa 21 9 0 2
Punjab 13 3 5 9
Rajasthan 25 16 4 20
Sikkim 1 0 0 0
Seemandhra 25 7 0 0
Telangana 17 3
Tamil Nadu 39 4 0 8
Tripura 2 0 0 0
UP 80 29 10 38
Uttarakhand 5 0 4
West Bengal 42 2 1 1
Andaman 1 1 1 1
Daman & Diu 1 0 1 1
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 1 1
Delhi 7 7 0 3
Pondicherry 1 0 0 0
Lakshadweep 1 0 0 0
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0
Total 543 199 121 230

Poll

 

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50 thoughts on “2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will BJP get? (Revised)

    1. Alliance with tdp demn sure so i shall advise u to include tdp to nda atleast another 15 seat nda there becase history shows people
      of andra go with possible government so ysr ll not get more than 10 seat

      Like

  1. If up bihar gives 75-80 seats nda ll not need anyone else other than above mentioned parties to form govnment but how can caste factor and tatical voting of minority be under estimated till vote reaches 70+ % ie very high voting of upper caste though it is quite possible due to high anger of people for sp,bsp,cong

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  2. I wish and pray for BJP to lead the nation atleast for the next 5 years to bail us out from the crooked non secular parties.
    But the BJP’s internal happenings are not impressive. Especially with old patrons – like Advaniji, Sushma Swaraj-ji, Murali Manohar Joshi – ji.
    Some of the issues should be discussed – off the screen and ironed out when we are targeting something big and need of the time.
    I am worried to see the things are happening and the way it is been handled.
    All the last six month’s efforts are seem to be squared off because of the last minute street fights.
    I started doubting the 200 mark.

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    1. Thanks Vivek. If you look at the allies formation and Modi wave stage is set for 250 seats or so. However internal fighting held me to make that projection. 245 to be precise. Let’s see! Keep reading participate in polls and help me to popularise the blog among your friends and family.

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      1. GOOD. I WISH EVEN IF BJP ALONE GET 225 SEATS ENOUGH. THEY CAN COBBLE-UP WITH AIADMK, MNS, TDP AND CAN DEFINITELY CROSS 275
        WITH THEIR HELP AND BUY SOME INDEPENDENTS OF 10.

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      2. I am not greedy. My wish is BJP alone should get 230. Then TDP, DMDK, MMDK,
        SHIV SENA, SDP can pool another 45 SEATs. Additionally, they can buy another 5-10 independents. In such a situation they do not need Jayalalitha. Holding 230 for BJP alone will not be a tough task for them to sail through.

        But their worry is how to keep third Front + Congress away from forming the government. We cannot say if the so-called third front (150) + congress (100) try their pitch to form the government, then BJP would be forced to step back.

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  3. quite agree with u – good prediction- bjp need to work hard fr last 1 month – if they work hard – they alone can get this seats .
    up -45
    bih-25
    jhk-10
    chht-10
    raj-22
    guj-22
    mad-26
    kar-16
    tam-3
    ap-2
    wb-2
    mah-18
    del-5
    har-6
    utta-5
    him-4
    pun-2
    assm-4
    ori-3
    jammu-2
    goa-2
    arun/man- 1+1 =2
    unt- 4 including chandigarh.
    total- 240 (bjp alone)
    but fr that they need to work hard- finger crossed.

    Like

    1. NO DOUBT. BJP IS WORKING HARD. NAMO IS VERY MATURED AND NEVER ALLOWED TO SLIP HIS TONGUE LIKE OTHERS IN BJP OR OTHER LEADERS.
      YOU SEE, FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS, THE WHOLE INDIA, ALL POLITICAL PARITES PARTIES, EVEN SHIV SEN, EXCEPT SAD ATTACHING HIM IN A HOSTILE MANNER. NOT ONLY THAT WITHIN THE PARTY HOW MUCH PRESSURE, HOW MUCH ATTACK HE HAD FROM SUSHMA, ADVANI, JASWANT SINGH, GADKARI, FROM RSS, ETC. HE HAS OVER COME ALL THOSE THINGS, TOLERATED EVERYTHING NEVER LOST HIS TEMPER. HIS (maqsat) OBJECTIVE TO BE AT THE TOP TO CONTROL INDIA, TO SAFE INDIA, TO DEVELOP INDIA. 2000 MUSLIMS HAVE BEEN KILLED AND EVERY DAY THERE IS A TALK ABOUT THIS. DID ANYBODY TALK ABOUT THE 68 HINDUS. WHO PROVOKED THE VIOLENCE FIRST IN GODHRA?

      I REPEAT, TO MY KNOWLEDGE AFTER INDEPENDENCE, NO OTHER POLITICIAN HAS BEEN SO MUCH ATTACKED FROM OUTSIDE AND WITHIN BJP. EVEN INDIRA GANDHI WAS NOT ATTACKED LIKE THIS FOR HER EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTATION. PLEASE REFER TO THE HISTORY.

      NAMO PATIENCE HAS BEEN TESTED FAR FROM NORMAL TESTING PARAMETERS.

      Like

  4. Bjp ruffly has baking of
    5 % muslims
    20 % dalit
    30% obc ie, yadav
    7o% upper caste

    ie about 40% of total votes how can we ignore chances of bjp winning big in up bihar
    bjp this time can win all seats in up exect about 20 seats in up where yadavs +dalit + muslims =75 -85 % votes
    (unfortunatly like my own contituency barabanky where muslim+ yadavs
    +dalit – 85% votes)

    in all other 60 seats
    bjp ll win atleast 50 damnsure

    s b

    Like

  5. Why do we talk of tactical voting too much last time bjp had only 18 % votes so it was issue but in december assambly and yesterday poll voting was 70+ % everywhere in such conditions high votiong will cancel minority vote in all contiueny where
    bjp will have 30-35 % vote min.. ,in multi cornered contest .. As per all opiniön pool and condition visible bjp have 36-39% votes of total in its side .i am confident of it

    Like

  6. admin 2004 was diff bjp was in power for 6 yrs and effect guj riots that dent bjp badly in south.- but this time situation diff – ur good political man u understand better than me- cong in power for 10 yrs add with huge anti-incumbency- look at haryana 73% polling after 1977 haryana never see this type of polling – up voter turn out bump up by 15% that is huge- just wait watch bjp will touch 240 on its own. add assam voter turn out 77% last time this type of turn out shows when agp form on 1980s and fight assembly election in assam

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  7. I still feel BJP’s Range is 180~220
    With high probability 200~210
    All numbers seem to have about 10% overestimate as a strong BJP supporter..
    I give 200-210 for BJP
    Rest 24 allies ! can at best get 35 Seats !
    NDA Range is 200-250
    Crossing 220 for BJP and 250 for NDA is Miracle ..

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    1. We are underestimating BJP on following states

      Orissa and Assam (Could add 4-5 seats more).
      Andhra Pradesh (TDP – 18-21and 3 for BJP in telangana) – Total of 21-24 seats in Andhra Pradesh
      West Bengal – 1- 3 (BJP can win 2 more seats than previous time)
      Tamil Nadu – 8-12 seats is a Possibility. Puducherrry (1 seat can be won by PMK).
      Bihar – 15-18 seats and not 20. Mostly less than 18.
      Uttar Pradesh – 30-35 seats and not more than that.

      19 seats BJP lost in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh would be compensated by TN, Andhra Pradesh, Assam , Orissa and West Bengal.

      If Maharashtra is prediction is correct, except for MUMBAI and PUNE seats where 1 Lakh voters of BJP and Shiv Sena has been deleted. Should be a close fight for MUmbai and Pune seats and BJP/SS can loose of because of not having this additional votes. So we might have to reduce 3-4 from Maharashtra.

      More likely either DMK (10 seats) or even AIADMK (18 seats) can support BJP from outside is a possibility as DMK is harrassed by congress on 2G scam. AIADMK Jaya will support BJP if the 3rd front formation is going to be tough.

      I would say that BJD would support BJP as they have not opposed supporting MODI vehemently like other parties like BSP, SP, TRS etc.

      So I feel that NDA should get 250 with 22 short of majority that can be given by AIADMK, BJD , JMM and independents.

      Like

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