Politicalbaaba had estimated 220 seats for NDA on Jan.16, 2014 up from 205 projected in Sep. 2013, link below.

https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/01/16/2014-lok-sabha-projections-how-many-seats-will-bjp-win/

Post the projections, new allies have joined NDA and BJP has announced its PM candidate will be fighting from Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh. These two factors are expected to increase NDA’s tally and take it closer to the half-way mark of 272.

New Allies:

(i) Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party joined NDA in Bihar. The party has good command over “Dusadh” community votebank with 6.75% vote share in last assembly elections. They have been given 7 seats out of 40. This tie up is expected to add another 4 seats to NDA tally.

(ii) PMK and DMDK two regional outfits in Tamil Nadu have joined alliance. Both Ramadoss and Vijaykanth have good clout in the state with DMDK emerging as the 2nd largest party behind AIADMK and ahead of DMK in the recently concluded state assembly polls. With Vaiko’s MDMK already in, the grand alliance is expected to bag 8 seats (+5 seats from last projections).

Modi’s candidature from Varanasi

BJP has announced that Modi will contest from Uttar Pradesh seat of Varanasi. UP sends the maximum MPs to Lok Sabha (80). This is likely to have a positive impact on 32 seats in Purvanchal, 16 seats in Avadh and 16 seats in Bihar (area in and around Varanasi). This is likley to add 8 seats to NDA’s kitty (38 vs 30 earlier).

Some other minor adjustments have been made to the numbers and NDA is now expected to win 230 seats as per Politicalbaaba, up from 220 projected in Jan. 2014.

The NDA could on its own win 250+ seats as Modi wave nears the polling dates. What is holding me back is the fact that there is a lot of internal fighting within BJP which could harm its prospects. Internal dissidence and internal sabotage by group opposing Modi would cost it dear. Plus BJP has lately been admitting all and sundry into the party (Ram Kirpal Yadav in Bihar, Jagdambika Pal in UP, Rao Inderjit Singh in Gurgaon etc.), this has not gone down with sections of party cadre and they are accusing party of giving tickets to outsiders. This will hamper NDA’s chances. Drama over Advani’s insistence to fight from Bhopal and later being coaxed to fight from Gandhinagar proves this point that all is not well within the party.

The fact that BJP tried to cosy upto Raj Thackeray’s party while having an official alliance with his cousin Uddhav’s party Shiv Sena has not gone well with the partner. This could hamper chances in Maharashtra.

State / UT Seats 1999 2009 2014
Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 0 1
Assam 14 2 4 4
Bihar 40 23 12 20
Jharkhand 14 8 8
Goa 2 2 1 2
Gujarat 26 20 15 21
Haryana 10 5 0 5
Himachal Pradesh 4 3 3 3
Jammu & Kashmir 6 2 0 1
Karnataka 28 7 19 14
Kerala 20 0 0 1
Madhya Pradesh 29 29 6 23
Chattisgarh 11 10 8
Maharashtra 48 28 20 28
Manipur 2 0 0 0
Meghalaya 2 0 0 0
Mizoram 1 0 0 0
Nagaland 1 0 0 0
Orissa 21 9 0 2
Punjab 13 3 5 9
Rajasthan 25 16 4 20
Sikkim 1 0 0 0
Seemandhra 25 7 0 0
Telangana 17 3
Tamil Nadu 39 4 0 8
Tripura 2 0 0 0
UP 80 29 10 38
Uttarakhand 5 0 4
West Bengal 42 2 1 1
Andaman 1 1 1 1
Daman & Diu 1 0 1 1
Dadra&Nagar 1 0 1 1
Delhi 7 7 0 3
Pondicherry 1 0 0 0
Lakshadweep 1 0 0 0
Chandigarh 1 0 0 0
Total 543 199 121 230

Poll

 

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