Prashant Kishore’s Real Test Starts Now! – My piece in India Today DailyO
Janata Dal United govt. survives for the time being in Bihar
Janata Dal United (JDU) govt. survived a scare in Bihar assembly yesterday where it got 145 / 243 votes. BJP MLAs staged a walk out. Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress supported Jitin Manjhi’s govt.
After drubbing received in Lok Sabha polls Nitish resigned as Chief Minister of Bihar taking moral responsibility. However we saw on earlier post how this was more of Sharad Yadav vs Nitish Kumar tug of war.
In meeting called by Nitish to discuss his resignation and appoint new leader majority JDU MLAs urged Nitish to take back his decision, MLAs of Sharad Yadav camp who opposed were in a minority & heckled. Nitish asked for a day to think, next day even before the meeting, Sharad built up pressure and issued statement that Nitish won’t take back his resignation. Nitish appointed a scheduled caste Jitin Manjhi as CM and checkmated Sharad.
Meanwhile Sharad got together with Lalu and RJD said it will support Nitish on floor of house. Sharad is getting close to Lalu to counter Nitish. Sharad felt that some MLAs of JDU will defect to BJP and his strategy of getting Lalu to support will help him attack and counter Nitish . But Nitish was able to maintain flock and Sharad got checkmated again.
So have problems for Nitish reduced? No. Disgruntled MLAs who were nursing CM ambitions will slowly revolt. Even Sharad may add fuel to fire. A remote control govt. is not very popular as seen in UPA 1 & 2. Nitish to show he morally accepts responsibility has done this but many backfire. Plus BJP is desperate to take revenge. Interesting times ahead in Bihar….
1st Casualty of Modi’s Emphatic Win: Bihar CM Nitish Resigns
Nitish Kumar Chief Minister of Bihar resigned from his post yesterday taking moral responsibility for his party’s humiliating defeat in Lok Sabha elections. He has called for a meeting of his party MLAs today in the evening to decide the next course of action. His party won only 2 seats in 2014 vs 20 in 2009. The primary reason for the defeat was his decision to break away with BJP its ally of 17 years on flimsy grounds. This has been proved as a harakiri. BJP won 30 seats in Bihar partly due to Modi wave and partly due to sympathy as majorly people felt Nitish did wrong to BJP. If they would have fought together NDA would have swept the state. Nitish has not asked for dissolution of house.
In his presser he was on the verge of crying (poor chap), utter confusion prevailed, he said anybody could form the govt. On asked what would he do if party MLAs still name him as their leader, he said he has said goodbye. Sharad Yadav, Party President of Janata Dal (United) was conspicuous by his absence. He said in New Delhi, that he would speak to Lalu & all other secular forces to keep Modi at bay. Later he denied the story.
JDU enjoys majority in house with support from Congress and some Independents in 243 member assembly. JDU 115, BJP 91, RJD 22, Congress 4 and Others 11.
Why did Nitish resign?
1. Pressure from Sharad Yadav camp. Sharad Yadav was never happy with Nitish’s decision of parting ways with BJP. But went ahead with the decision as Nitish was stronger. Due to this decision even Sharad lost his Madhepura seat . So he is clearly unhappy and got a chance to settle score with Nitish forcing him to take moral responsibility and resign. After all it was Nitish’s decision.
2. Nitish senses there could be spilt in JDU. BJP will try to destabilize his govt by weaning away MLAs. Sushil Modi had claimed 50 JDU MLAs were in touch with him. There has already been an exodus of MPs / MLAs from his party. So he is trying to preempt it and show people that BJP is trying to destabilize his govt and gain sympathy.
What could happen?
1. JDU MLAs could re-elect Nitish as their leader and he would again become CM. He would say under pressure from party MLAs he is accepting responsibility again.
2. Some other person is elected as leader and he becomes CM. This could be from Sharad Yadav or Nitish camp depending upon who has the number in the party. Seems at this stage Nitish camp it will be.
3. JDU may refrain from forming govt. They would wait for MLAs to quit and go to BJP. 2/3rd of MLAs are required to split party and it will be difficult for BJP to split JDU (77 MLAs required). JDU MLAs which support BJP could resign in the hope of getting re-elected on BJP ticket. So as Modi claims if 50 MLAs of JDU resign and get re-elected BJP will emerge as single largest party. But this could take 3-6 months.
4. JDU and Lalu’s RJD may get together to form govt. (highly unlikely). Sharad is taking help of Lalu to counter Nitsh. Group led by Sharad plus support from RJD, Congress & independents may form govt.
Most probably either 1 or 2 will happen, Nitish comes back or he puts his right hand man to succeed.
The situation is fluid and there could be re-elections in next 6 months if MLAs as claimed by Sushil Modi leave JDU and cross sides. BJP is itching to settle score with Nitish and will do everything to trouble him.
In one of my first posts since I started blogging I have predicted that JDU will split post Lok Sabha polls, seems it is proving correct. Link below: https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/07/02/bjp-part-i/
Two other state govt. will be in trouble – Uttarakhand & Jharkhand. Watch out for this space…….
Related articles:
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/07/21/rebellion-in-bihar-bjp-starts/
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/07/24/rumours-of-sharad-yadav-nitish-rift-surface/
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2013/10/07/congress-in-double-mind-to-ally-with-nitish-or-lalu/
https://politicalbaaba.wordpress.com/2014/02/01/lalu-ensures-congress-shows-thenga-to-nitish/
All India Projections Lok Sabha 2014 (Revised)
The final All India Politicalbaaba Projections for Lok Sabha 2014 is out. Polls begin next week and as model code of conduct comes into being opinion polls will be banned. 2014 is expected to throw a hung Parliament in line with elections since 1989.
Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to emerge as the largest alliance with 230 seats (up 99 seats from 2009). The alliance includes among others Shiv Sena (Maharashtra), Akali Dal (Punjab), MDMK / PMK / DMDK (Tamil Nadu) and Lok Janshakti Party (Bihar). BJP is expected to record its best tally ever with ~200 seats.
NDA is expected to do well in Uttar Pradesh (38; +28 from last time), Maharashtra (28; +8), Gujarat (21; +6), Madhya Pradesh (23; +7), Rajasthan (20; +16) and Bihar (20; +8). Majority of its seats (150) are expected to come from these 6 states which is predominantly Hindi speaking / understanding belt. Here Modi wave is strong. Modi’s Other Backward Caste (OBC) factor would also work here. NDA’s seats would double in these six states compared to 2009 despite losing big ally in Janata Dal (United) which had bagged 20 seats last time.
Seats could go up if the alliance sweeps UP and Bihar. Among other states NDA is expected to sweep Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. It has a tough fight up its sleeve in Punjab. In Punjab its NDA which is fighting anti-incumbency against its Akali Dal led state govt. Plus a united Congress here would prevent a sweep and scores would be balance here. NDA is expected to throw a surprise in Tamil Nadu with 8 seats. The alliance with Vaiko, Ramadoss, Vijaykanth is strong and it would emerge as the second largest combination ahead of DMK. The grand alliance there is a deliberate ploy by BJP to corner Amma who declined to enter into a pre-poll alliance. Modi has held many rallies in North Eastern states and I would not be surprised if they do well there as well. In Karnataka re-entry of Yeddyurappa has changed equations and BJP will score more than Congress though lesser than 2009 performance.
Poor candidate selection, over reliance on Modi and severe infighting among top party leaders is one of the main reasons why BJP is expected to get a majority on their own. As camapign heats up, undecided voters may tilt towards NDA due to TINA (there is no alternative) factor and NDA may even end up getting 250 seats on its own.
United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Congress is expected to get 112 seats (half of what it got in 2009). UPA consists of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) National Conference (NC), Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). The alliance has been hit severely by desertions mainly of Trinamool Congress (TMC) and DMK. Further its inability to forge alliances with Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) will also impact its prospects. The rule of UPA I & II has been engulfed with record corruption scams, high inflation, unemployment, complete halt of economic growth and weak leadership. There is huge anti-incumbency against Congress which is the reason it will be trounced. Congress is set to record its lowest tally ever with ~90 seats.
UPA is losing seats in Uttar Pradesh (-12), Andhra Pradesh (-28), Haryana (-9), Rajasthan (-16), Delhi (-7), Kerala (-8) and Maharashtra (-11). In Seemandhra it is losing to the state parties YSR Congress & Telugu Desam Party (TDP) because of bifurcation of Telangana. In Telangana it will compete with TRS and BJP to get credit for creation of state. In Delhi Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) will ruin it while farmer suicides and Vadra land deals will nail it in Maharashtra and Haryana respectively. Only in the state of Karnataka perhaps it will do better than last time.
Third Front has been grounded before it took off. The Communists were trying to prop up the front but seat sharing talks with Jaya broke down in Tamil Nadu. Plus Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and Assam Gana Parishad (AGP) were not to keen.
Left Front is expected to bag 30 seats (W. Bengal, Kerala and Tripura), AIADMK 25 seats in Tamil Nadu, Mamata’s TMC 25 seats in Bengal and debutante AAP 11 seats. TDP and Jagan’s YSR Congress will sweep Seemandhra. Samajwadi Party (-10) and Janata Dal (United) (-14) will receive a drubbing. Biju Janata Dal will continue its dominance in Odisha. TRS will gain in Telangana as it is credited with creation of the state. Others combined will get 201 seats up 14 from last time. However, they are not a united block and all of them will decide their independent course of action.
| State / UT | Seats | UPA | NDA | Others | SP | BSP | JDU | Left | BJD | AIADMK | YSR | TDP | AAP | TRS | TMC |
| Arunachal Pradesh | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Assam | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Bihar | 40 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Jharkhand | 14 | 3 | 9 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Goa | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Gujarat | 26 | 5 | 21 | ||||||||||||
| Haryana | 10 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Himachal Pradesh | 4 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Jammu & Kashmir | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Karnataka | 28 | 11 | 14 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Kerala | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | ||||||||||
| Madhya Pradesh | 29 | 6 | 23 | ||||||||||||
| Chattisgarh | 11 | 3 | 8 | ||||||||||||
| Maharashtra | 48 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Manipur | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Meghalaya | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Mizoram | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Nagaland | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Orissa | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | |||||||||||
| Punjab | 13 | 6 | 7 | ||||||||||||
| Rajasthan | 25 | 5 | 20 | ||||||||||||
| Sikkim | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Seemandhra | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | |||||||||
| Tamil Nadu | 39 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 25 | ||||||||||
| Telangana | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Tripura | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |||||||||||
| UP | 80 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 1 | ||||||||
| Uttarakhand | 5 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||
| West Bengal | 42 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 | ||||||||||
| Andaman | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Daman & Diu | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Dadra&Nagar | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Delhi | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||
| Pondicherry | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Lakshadweep | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Chandigarh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Total | 543 | 112 | 230 | 23 | 12 | 18 | 8 | 31 | 16 | 25 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
| In 2009 | 543 | 225 | 131 | 50 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 |
Lalu, Paswan, Nitish queue up outside Congress HQ with red roses on Valentine’s Day
For the past 15 years or so, Bihar politics has revolved around two poles – National Democratic Alliance (NDA) & United Progressive Alliance (UPA). NDA represented by BJP & Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). UPA consisting of Congress and Lalu’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). While NDA banked on upper caste and OBC votes, UPA banked on Muslim-Yadav combination.
Lok Sabha Results
1998 (including Jharkhand): NDA 30, UPA 23
1999 (including Jharkhand): NDA 41, UPA 11
2004: NDA 11, UPA 25
2009: NDA 32, UPA 6
In July 2013, JD(U) and BJP parted ways. Nitish was jealous that peer Chief Minister Narendra Modi could be projected as PM candidate of NDA and hence pulled the plug. Party with which JD(U) worked for 17 long years suddenly became communal. In the meantime Lalu was jailed in fodder scam and pundits started predicting his political demise.
JD(U) started hobnobbing with Congress. JD(U) had ditched Modi, Congress biggest enemy and was sure of an electoral pact. Meanwhile Lalu got bail and started wooing Congress. Paswan unhappy with Lalu over seat adjustments also started wooing Congress directly.
Congress occupied the enviable position of a beautiful girl who everybody was infatuated to in school. So it turns out to be a quadrangular love story, heard of triangular ones and seen a lot of them in movies. Congress is flattered. 3 suitors. What for? All polls show that Congress will be routed in Lok Sabha in 2014. Then why are all regional parties in Bihar after it? For the Muslim votes. Congress is itself unsure of having keys to this votebank, but perception helps. While Nitish wants a tie-up to compensate for the loss of upper caste votes (after split with BJP), Lalu and Paswan do no want their Muslim votebank to split or go to JD(U).
Congress on the other hand is throwing tantrums (bhaav khaa rahi hai), taking its own sweet time. On marriage sites you see profiles which have great pictures to attract suitors, but when you actually meet them, they are totally different. In a similar manner, Congress is claiming it has Muslim votebank, and hence has got all prospective suitors from Bihar. While it has practically no votebank in Bihar.
On this Valentine’s Day, Lalu, Nitish & Paswan will be seen all queuing up outside Congress Headquarters in Delhi with red roses in their hands to seal the tie-up. JD(U) has joined Third Front but survey results showing it will be decimated to less than 10 seats in Bihar, would make Nitish re-think. Plus Lalu’s corrupt image could still tilt Congress in favour of Nitish, is what JD(U) feels.
Lets see who the lady luck will smile on…..
Third Front being formed, God save India!
After being snubbed by Congress, Nitish is now leading efforts to cobble together a Third Front. He has called upon leaders of the erstwhile “Janata Party / Parivaar” to come together to take on the Congress and the BJP. Janata Party formed govt. in 1977 with Bhartiya Lok Dal and Bhartiya Jan Sangh (now BJP) as its alliance partners. People voted against Indira’s emergency measures. The govt. couldn’t last its full term due to internal conflicts and Indira came back to power in 1980.
Janata Party disintegrated into a number of smaller parties as their tall leaders fell apart due to their big egos. Janata Party became Janata Dal and Janata Dal further split into JD(A to Z). Regional satraps Mulayam Singh Yadav (Samajwadi Party), Ajit Singh (Rashtriya Lok Dal), Nitish Kumar (Janata Dal United), Naveen Patnaik (Biju Janata Dal), Deve Gowda (Janata Dal Secular), Lalu Yadav (Rashtriya Janata Dal) were all part of the Janata Parivaar earlier. Some of the above like Ajit and Lalu are with Congress now.
Nitish is in talks with Mulayam and Naveen to form a grand alliance. He is also trying to rope in Left Front and AIADMK and talking of a 10 party alliance. These parties together have ~90 seats currently. While SP and JDU seats will decline, this will be made up by higher seats of Left / AIADMK. So roughly they could get same no. of seats and will depend on Congress / other parties to provide outside support. Pawar, Asom Gana Parishad etc. could also join after polls.
The Front continues to suffer from internal contradictions and shortcomings. Two big anti-Congress / anti-BJP parties Bahujan Samaj Party and Trinamool Congress won’t join the alliance at any cost. Maya since Mulayam is there and Mamata since Left is there. Plus DMK also won’t join assuming AIADMK is there. From Andhra only one of Jagan or Naidu could join at the best.
So all in all this Third Front would not pose any real threat to Congress or BJP. Jayalalitha could agree to be part of this alliance as she knows that her party would bag the highest no. of seats and in case of fractured mandate (like Delhi), Congress would chose to support her as Prime Minister to keep Modi at bay. Not easy, but a remote possibility.
The best part of this alliance if it fructifies is that every body (except for Left) wants to be PM and won’t let the other become PM. Would Nitish allow Mulayam / Gowda to be PM or vice-a-versa? Never! Nitish is behaving like a khisiani bill and wants to teach Congress / BJP a lesson.
However, this does help Congress. Congress Plan A – Aam Aadmi Party is fizzling out, so this could act as Plan B to stop BJP juggernaut. Most probably this Front will die before it is even born. Ek mayan mein itni talwarein kaise rahengi! Only time will tell.
For parties like AIADMK, BJD this is also a bit tricky situation as they are possible alliance partners of NDA / BJP post polls. If they join Third Front it will be difficult for them to leave sinking ship and jump onto to BJP ship post polls. Difficult but not impossible. Anything for power!
India doesn’t want a 1996 like situation where Deve Gowda and Gujral of Janata Dal (with only 46 seats) became PM supported by Left (44 seats), Congress (140 seats) and other parties. God save us from this Third Front full of jokers!
Lalu ensures Congress shows thenga to Nitish
Nitish babu is in a bad mood nowadays. Ever since he broke alliance with BJP, “shani” is looming large over his fortunes. Bodh gaya blasts, death of children in midday meal scheme and rebellion in party all this has flustered him. On top of this NaMo wave is gripping the state and Janata Dal (United) is being relegated to the third spot even behind fodder scam convicted Lalu in surveys.
What made Nitish dump BJP?
His uneasiness with Modi’s appointment as Election Campaign Chief and perhaps jealousy forced him to dump BJP. How could he see his peer CM become Prime Ministerial face of NDA! But he is an astute politician and he definitely would have understood the arithmetic that the decision could prove counter-productive. JDU along with BJP sweeped the state in 2009 Lok Sabha Elections bagging 32 out of 40 seats (20 JDU + 12 BJP).
First of all the fact that his party without the help of BJP would still be able to run the state govt. in Bihar provided comfort to take the punt. Then he thought that as he deserted BJP, Congress would give him a trophy and welcome him into UPA. He felt that he would bargain for a special status for Bihar and get an economic package which would pacify the public anger against him for breaking alliance. He believed Congress which has lately had an uneasy relationship with Lalu, plus fodder scam allegations against Lalu would draw Congress away from Lalu towards him. Congress partnership would bring minority votes to his party and he would be able to maintain his position of 20 seats as last time. Plus his govt. has done good development work in the state. With this strategy he wooed Sonia, economic package to be bartered with pre-poll alliance.
What went wrong?
Congress was worried over Nitish’s credentials. After all he was for 17 years with BJP. Plus a section of JDU was not in favour of breaking the alliance with BJP, proved by recent desertions and suspensions. Sonia was worried that JDU could split post elections. Plus Lalu was a loyal soldier whereas Nitish a “chaalu” neta. Lalu in no way could dump Congress and join BJP. With JDU expected to do badly as per surveys, Congress thus has made up mind to forge a Lalu-Paswan-Congress-NCP grand alliance. Corruption is not a big issue in Bihar, caste politics is. This has left Nitish crying. He is singing this song nowadays “Dil Aisa Kisi Ne Mera Toda, Barbadi Ki Taraf Mujhe Moda”.
Sonia – Nitish spat over AMU
His uneasy relationship with Sonia was evident in the foundation-laying ceremony of Aligarh Muslim University in Kisanganj Bihar. Earlier he was not even invited by Union Humar Resources Ministry. A sulking Nitish thundered that the central government had taken the ‘cowardly’ decision as it was afraid that Bihar government would get credit for the AMU centre. Congress hit back at Nitish for raking up a controversy over the issue by saying that AMU centre was a ‘dream project’ of Sonia Gandhi and ‘the CM in the garb of AMU is trying to derive political advantage’ by ‘hoodwinking’ Muslims. Anyways he got the invitation and cold vibes between Sonia and him were visible during the event.
Last ditch effort to woo Paswan also failed
Paswan was reportedly unhappy with seat sharing arrangements with Lalu. He had even gone to Sonia and asked her to ally with JDU as per reports. Hearing this Nitish tried to rope in Paswan but he also in the end decided to stay with Lalu. Chamcha Paswan has left it to his mentor Sonia to stitch the issue of seat sharing with Lalu.
Nitish’s condition is now that of “Mungeri Lal” who enjoys his sweet dreams even during daytime. With loss looming large, split in party evident, last heard he was trying to work up together a “Janata Parivar” revival. All the best Nitish! Jab mati maari jaati hai, to yahi hota hai! Sharad Yadav is cursing the day he agreed to go with Nitish’s decision to split with BJP.
All India Lok Sabha Projections 2014
We have completed the projections for two principal coalitions UPA (led by Congress) and NDA (led by BJP). We have also seen how the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party is expected to fair (though projections were carried out before Somnath Bharti episode), and have been adjusted downward for the same. Link of articles below:
Thanks to readers and followers for the great response on the above 3 projections (all three articles are amongst the top in their category in google search engine).
Today we will take a look at Politicalbaba’s All India Projections. NDA is expected to be the leader with 220 seats, UPA lagging way behind at 100 seats (including Lalu’s RJD 112). AAP is expected to bag 11 seats (down from 15 projected earlier). Others with 200 seats will be the key to govt. formation at the center. Prominent among them are:
1) Left Front – Left Front is expected to be the third largest group / alliance of parties with 31 seats (+9). In its bastion of Kerala it is expected to bounce back with 14 seats while in W.Bengal it would retain its tally of 15 seats despite Mamata Banerjee wave. Kerala votes for Congress and Let Front every alternate election and this time it is its chance.
2) AIADMK – Jayalalitha’s party is expected to bag 27 seats (+18). DMK-Congress break up plus fissures in party with suspension of Azahgiri, will hit DMK hard. Alleged involvement of Karuna’s daughter Kanimozhi and relative Dayanidhi Maran in 2G scam have dented DMK’s prospects. Traditionally, voters in T.Nadu alternate between AIADMK and DMK every elections and going by this trend as well, this time its chance of AIADMK.
3) Trinamool Congress – Mamata is expected to bag 25 seats (+6). Though it has broken its alliance with Congress, it is expected to get most of the seats won by Congress last time (6). Left Front is not in a position to dislodge Mamata though it would retain its seats bagged last time. Huge rally today in Kolkata is testimony of Didi’s popularity.
4) Bahujan Samaj Party – Maya is likley to hold onto its votebank and seat share in Uttar Pradesh (20 seats). Despite Modi wave in the Hindi heartland, she is expected to retain her tally as Mulayam’s Samajwadi Party has weakened after Muzffarnagar riots and Congress is suffering from strong anti-incumbency.
5) Biju Janata Dal – Naveen Patnaik is expected to hold onto its tally (15 seats). Lack of effective state level leadership of BJP and Congress plus clean image of Naveen babu will clinch the deal in its favour.
6) YSR Congress – Jagan Reddy’s party is expected to make its debut with 14 seats riding on the anti-Telangana wave in Seemandhra. Congress is in shambles there with state leadership opposing Telangana. Until and unless Telangana Rashtriya Samiti either merges with Congress or enters into an electoral tie-up, Congress is doomed in the state (-28 seats).
7) Samajwadi Party – Mulayam’s dream of becoming a PM will remain a dream. Party will be lucky to get 14 seats (-8). Muzaffarnagar riots have alienated Muslim votebank. Plus Lodh community’s Kalyan Singh is back with BJP. Modi wave has gripped the state. The damage will not be significant though as Yadavs will vote for him no matter what. Plus minority community could vote tactically in some constituencies to defeat BJP candidates.
8) Aam Aadmi Party – The newbie could bag 11 seats (7 in the National Capital Region) of Delhi and Haryana. Recent events have dented its image so its seats have been downgraded from earlier 15 to 11.
9) Telugu Desam Party – Chandrababu Naidu’s party is expected to bag 10 seats (+4). It would be competing with Jagan’s party for seats in Seemandhra. A tie-up with BJP could improve position further. The hitch is BJP supports Telangana while TDP opposes it.
10) Rashtriya Janata Dal – Lalu could bag 10 seats (+6). Break-up of BJP-JDU alliance will help him to make a comeback. His corruption case will not be a big issue in Bihar. Alliance with Congress will help RJD.
11) Janata Dal United – Nitish’s party would get a drubbing in the elections with just 10 seats (-12). Split with BJP will cost it dear. There is a huge Modi wave in state plus party MPs have started deserting the ship. Lalu-RJD alliance will also wean away minority votes.
Others like Telangana Rashtriya Samiti and DMK could bag 8 and 6 seats respectively.
NDA under the leadership of Modi will emerge as the single largest pre-poll coalition. President would invite him to explore govt. formation opportunities. In next post we will see who is likely to support BJP / NDA and whether it can form govt.
In the meantime your thoughts please….
| State / UT | Seats | UPA | NDA | Others | SP | BSP | JDU | Left | BJD | AIADMK | YSR | TDP | AAP | TRS | TMC |
| Andhra Pradesh | 42 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 8 | |||||||
| Arunachal Pradesh | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Assam | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Bihar | 40 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 10 | ||||||||||
| Jharkhand | 14 | 4 | 10 | ||||||||||||
| Goa | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Gujarat | 26 | 5 | 21 | ||||||||||||
| Haryana | 10 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Himachal Pradesh | 4 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Jammu & Kashmir | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Karnataka | 28 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Kerala | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | ||||||||||
| Madhya Pradesh | 29 | 5 | 24 | ||||||||||||
| Chattisgarh | 11 | 1 | 10 | ||||||||||||
| Maharashtra | 48 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Manipur | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Meghalaya | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Mizoram | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Nagaland | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Orissa | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |||||||||||
| Punjab | 13 | 3 | 10 | ||||||||||||
| Rajasthan | 25 | 4 | 21 | ||||||||||||
| Sikkim | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Tamil Nadu | 39 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | |||||||||
| Tripura | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |||||||||||
| UP | 80 | 8 | 30 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 1 | ||||||||
| Uttarakhand | 5 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||
| West Bengal | 42 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 | ||||||||||
| Andaman | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Daman & Diu | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Dadra&Nagar | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Delhi | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||
| Pondicherry | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Lakshadweep | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
| Chandigarh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Total | 543 | 100 | 220 | 38 | 14 | 20 | 10 | 31 | 15 | 27 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
| In 2009 | 543 | 225 | 131 | 50 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 |
NDA = BJP + Shiv Sena + Akali Dal
UPA = Congress + NCP + JMM + RLD
One More Election in Bihar: Contributed by Prakash Prabhakar
The serial blasts at Patna are now a matter of investigation & ideally shouldn’t be discussed in public domain until the professional agencies have finished their job. I think it is wise to get back to analysing what was spoken at the Hunkaar Rally..so here are my thoughts…
The speech of Narendra Modi at Patna was emotionally charged & arousing with a massive connect with the audience at Gandhi maidan. As expected, he didn’t make too many references to Rahul Gandhi and systemically went about debunking Nitish Kumar & Congress, including their hobnobbing for possible alliance…
Indeed Bihar has given Bhagwaan Budh, Mahavir, Guru Gobind Singh, Gandhiji’s Champaran, and JP etc..Bihar has also given a lot of Bihari labor that migrates to various parts of the country including Gujarat in search of employment. Even NaMo in one of his earlier public mentions had said – “we import poverty from all over India” & cited the migration of Bihari labor to Gujarat as an evidence for it…
His Hunkaar rally focused a lot on self-respect, poverty & made a massive appeal to the people to vote BJP in at all 40 seats…It is a perfectly made call and I hope people respond to his call. However, in all fairness, NaMo needs to answer these 3 questions after what he spoke at the rally:
a) why didn’t a single large business house (particularly from the prosperous state of Gujarat) invest in the economic opportunity of Bihar while BJP & JD (U) were governing together and law & order was restored in the state. This question becomes more pertinent after his claim that he held the purpose of Bihar higher than his personal stature in the political equations of the state.
b) What does NaMo mean when he says, he is very concerned about the Yadav, Laloo Prasad and his well being as he comes from Dwarka, the kingdom of Lord Krishna, the Yadav. And then adds Casteism kills The Republic…this question can be ignored as unfortunately, politics still is largely influenced by caste equations, even more in Bihar.
c) Finally, a historical fact – Sikander (corrected Napoleon) wasn’t defeated; he returned as his own foot soldiers were tired and home sick. They stopped relating to the purpose of their General and thus refused to move any further in the march…
NaMo has succeeded in emerging as the symbol of spirit for maximum good to nation; without this patriotic purpose, he is nothing but another public figure who speaks better than most others do. He needs to reckon this more so now than ever before. And his speeches must now start to balance between rhetoric & substance. Hunkaar on Rhetoric was a perfect 10 but it failed to put together or show any road map for prosperity in Bihar. Rajnath Singh ji’s suggestion than there will be farm loans at Zero percent is an assurance which is fraught with such economic errors that it scores more on rhetoric than prosperity roadmap. It is pertinent to mention that The Gujarat Model of development is not replicable in Bihar because of the limitation of preparedness that Bihar has in adopting that model.
Having said this, all points that NaMo made about social, economic & political lapses are extremely important and valid points that need to be raised and asked in public forums. Which he brilliantly does at every single rally.
I write this as I too have grown amidst the challenging poverty of Bihar and my heart bled when I recently visited Bihar and realized that after 25 years, time was like a still there – no change except in the number of sad & tired faces on the road. And yes, speaking about opportunism – that has, unfortunately, become a political culture or even a national culture. Truth be told, there were opportunists sharing the dais with NaMo today at Hunkaar. Those who refuse to be opportunists are, unfortunately, broken down by the system, mauled and then ridiculed.
Its time Bihar got its share of economic & social dividend in lieu of the political contributions that it has made to India across centuries. I hope that NaMo will not forget his emotionally charged assurance to reciprocate the love he experienced at Gandhi Maidan today on the 27th of October 2013. This reciprocation should be irrespective of whether he gets all 40 or none. By the way I was amongst the early ones (as early as last year) who had expressed that Bihar is waiting to be taken by a new political formation and anyone can come and sweep it for 28 to 30 seats…with new set of promises – promises, that will, hopefully, be fulfilled this time.
Modi Hunkars at Patna rally; Nitish says Modi won’t become PM
Modi carried out one of the biggest rallies in recent history in Patna last week. Estimates range from 3-10 lakhs. Minimum attendance would have been 1 lakh if not more. That was commendable considering that blasts rocked the city before the rally. This was the first time NaMo was holding a rally in Bihar after partner of 17 years JDU parted ways with BJP in June 2013. When BJP – JDU were in power, Nitish Kumar (NiKu) didn’t let NaMo hold rallies in Bihar and threatened split.
NaMo in his usual style took on his former ally and current CM Nitish Kumar (NiKu). He said that NiKu has betrayed the people of Bihar not only BJP. Very true. JDU won the elections in an alliance with BJP. When JDU broke the alliance, NiKu should have morally resigned and seeked a re-election. Phat jaati thi, so he is carrying on. He even forgot that he was made CM despite BJP MLAs being more in mumber.
NiKu is feeling the heat. First Bodhgaya blasts, then mid day meal tragedy and then blasts on the day of NaMo’s rally, clearly signaled that he is not in full control of situation and busy day dreaming to become PM. Plus personal jealousy against NaMo is killing him from inside. You have to give this to NiKu, NiKu feels that why should NaMo be PM when is just the CM of a state with 20 odd MPs, even he has 20 MPs and is a CM, so why can’t he become CM. Human nature can’t blame him. It is similar to a situation if your batch mate becomes your boss, would you like it, of course no. NiKu and other CMs Mamata, Patnaik, Amma suffer from this jealousy. Arre NiKu bhaiyya, he is the PM designate of a party which would get 200 seats, while your party will not even get 10 seats, did you get the difference now. Apni aukat pehchanoo. Public mood in Bihar already against you, blasts added fuel to the fire, plus your internal party rebellion is not letting you sleep.
Modi played to the gallery and brought in his humble roots (chaiwallah’s son). This is expected to help BJP as he seems to have become a source of inspiration of today’s youth. People have realized that Rahul has no other qualification than “Gandhi” tag. And he is one of the few leaders who is openly taking on the Gandhi family.
Will the turnout at rallies translate into votes is the big question. A lot of people might just be coming out of curiosity, critics would say. This time it seems will be different and he would lead BJP to good no. of seats in Bihar as his middle class background and OBC status will help BJP.
Under fire from public after a series of blasts in Patna which left <10 killed and 100s injured and rattled by strong crowd at BJP’s Patna rally, Nitish took pot shots at Modi in his party convention.
NiKu pointed out that Taxila was not in Bihar (correct), Modi had said that Taxila and Nalanda are two important seats of learning based in Bihar. He also pointed out that Chandragupta was from Maurya dynasty and not Gupta dynasty (couldn’t get the right answer, internet has both). Shabaas NiKu aap 5th standard ki history / geography pariktcha mein pass ho gaye.
Getting personal he said that NaMo’s PM dream will remain a dream and someone desperate to become PM cannot lead the country. NiKu since when has the country given authority to you to select PM. PM will be elected by people of this country. Speaking of desperation, you seem to be more desperate but you recognize that you don’t have the numbers.
He blasted Modi for going ahead with the rally even after the blasts and putting life of people at risk. NiKu its your govt. in Bihar? Why didn’t you ban the rally? Do you have the courage? What would have happened if crowd went berserk. You should be thankful to BJP leaders who handled the situation very well and didn’t mention blasts in their speeches. They could have done it to gain sympathy.
NiKu went on to say that he was not responsible for blasts and no intelligence input was recd (safed jhooth). IB confirmed later that they had sent alert to Bihar govt. Of course he would not have deliberately been lax about BJP rally but whatever happened helped Namo and created a sympathy wave for him.
Taking a dig at crowds he said that his party’s rallies attracted higher crowds. Mr Nitish these were joint rallies and hence you got more people. Ab rally kar ke dikhao. Kitne log aate hain.
Nitish losing his cool as he can see the end of his dream to become PM, his seats expected to halve and his party to split. He can see the inevitable and can’t do anything to change it. Feel sorry for you, par tumne to apne pair pe hi kulhaadi maari hai. All the best!
State ki chinta karo. Law and order is in shambles. Terrorist cells are on the rise. Leave worrying about NaMo.
Nitish Kumar blasts Modi, says his dream to unfurl flag at Red Fort will remain a dream
Under fire from public after a series of blasts in Patna which left <10 killed and 100s injured and rattled by strong crowd at BJP’s Patna rally, Nitish took pot shots at Modi in his party convention.
NiKu pointed out that Taxila was not in Bihar (correct), Modi had said that Taxila and Nalanda are two important seats of learning based in Bihar. He also pointed out that Chandragupta was from Maurya dynasty and not Gupta dynasty (couldn’t get the right answer, internet has both). Shabaas NiKu aap 5th standard ki history / geography pariktcha mein pass ho gaye.
Getting personal he said that NaMo’s PM dream will remain a dream and someone desperate to become PM cannot lead the country. NiKu since when has the country given authority to you to select PM. PM will be elected by people of this country. Speaking of desperation, you seem to be more desperate but you recognize that you don’t have the numbers.
He blasted Modi for going ahead with the rally even after the blasts and putting life of people at risk. NiKu its your govt. in Bihar? Why didn’t you ban the rally? Do you have the courage? What would have happened if crowd went berserk. You should be thankful to BJP leaders who handled the situation very well and didn’t mention blasts in their speeches. They could have done it to gain sympathy.
NiKu went on to say that he was not responsible for blasts and no intelligence input was recd (safed jhooth). IB confirmed later that they had sent alert to Bihar govt. Of course he would not have deliberately been lax about BJP rally but whatever happened helped Namo and created a sympathy wave for him.
Taking a dig at crowds he said that his party’s rallies attracted higher crowds. Mr Nitish these were joint rallies and hence you got more people. Ab rally kar ke dikhao. Kitne log aate hain.
Nitish losing his cool as he can see the end of his dream to become PM, his seats expected to halve and his party to split. He can see the inevitable and can’t do anything to change it. Feel sorry for you, par tumne to apne pair pe hi kulhaadi maari hai. All the best!
State ki chinta karo. Law and order is in shambles. Terrorist cells are on the rise. Leave worrying about NaMo.
Politicalbaaba 