We have completed the projections for two principal coalitions UPA (led by Congress) and NDA (led by BJP). We have also seen how the new entrant Aam Aadmi Party is expected to fair (though projections were carried out before Somnath Bharti episode), and have been adjusted downward for the same. Link of articles below:
Thanks to readers and followers for the great response on the above 3 projections (all three articles are amongst the top in their category in google search engine).
Today we will take a look at Politicalbaba’s All India Projections. NDA is expected to be the leader with 220 seats, UPA lagging way behind at 100 seats (including Lalu’s RJD 112). AAP is expected to bag 11 seats (down from 15 projected earlier). Others with 200 seats will be the key to govt. formation at the center. Prominent among them are:
1) Left Front – Left Front is expected to be the third largest group / alliance of parties with 31 seats (+9). In its bastion of Kerala it is expected to bounce back with 14 seats while in W.Bengal it would retain its tally of 15 seats despite Mamata Banerjee wave. Kerala votes for Congress and Let Front every alternate election and this time it is its chance.
2) AIADMK – Jayalalitha’s party is expected to bag 27 seats (+18). DMK-Congress break up plus fissures in party with suspension of Azahgiri, will hit DMK hard. Alleged involvement of Karuna’s daughter Kanimozhi and relative Dayanidhi Maran in 2G scam have dented DMK’s prospects. Traditionally, voters in T.Nadu alternate between AIADMK and DMK every elections and going by this trend as well, this time its chance of AIADMK.
3) Trinamool Congress – Mamata is expected to bag 25 seats (+6). Though it has broken its alliance with Congress, it is expected to get most of the seats won by Congress last time (6). Left Front is not in a position to dislodge Mamata though it would retain its seats bagged last time. Huge rally today in Kolkata is testimony of Didi’s popularity.
4) Bahujan Samaj Party – Maya is likley to hold onto its votebank and seat share in Uttar Pradesh (20 seats). Despite Modi wave in the Hindi heartland, she is expected to retain her tally as Mulayam’s Samajwadi Party has weakened after Muzffarnagar riots and Congress is suffering from strong anti-incumbency.
5) Biju Janata Dal – Naveen Patnaik is expected to hold onto its tally (15 seats). Lack of effective state level leadership of BJP and Congress plus clean image of Naveen babu will clinch the deal in its favour.
6) YSR Congress – Jagan Reddy’s party is expected to make its debut with 14 seats riding on the anti-Telangana wave in Seemandhra. Congress is in shambles there with state leadership opposing Telangana. Until and unless Telangana Rashtriya Samiti either merges with Congress or enters into an electoral tie-up, Congress is doomed in the state (-28 seats).
7) Samajwadi Party – Mulayam’s dream of becoming a PM will remain a dream. Party will be lucky to get 14 seats (-8). Muzaffarnagar riots have alienated Muslim votebank. Plus Lodh community’s Kalyan Singh is back with BJP. Modi wave has gripped the state. The damage will not be significant though as Yadavs will vote for him no matter what. Plus minority community could vote tactically in some constituencies to defeat BJP candidates.
8) Aam Aadmi Party – The newbie could bag 11 seats (7 in the National Capital Region) of Delhi and Haryana. Recent events have dented its image so its seats have been downgraded from earlier 15 to 11.
9) Telugu Desam Party – Chandrababu Naidu’s party is expected to bag 10 seats (+4). It would be competing with Jagan’s party for seats in Seemandhra. A tie-up with BJP could improve position further. The hitch is BJP supports Telangana while TDP opposes it.
10) Rashtriya Janata Dal – Lalu could bag 10 seats (+6). Break-up of BJP-JDU alliance will help him to make a comeback. His corruption case will not be a big issue in Bihar. Alliance with Congress will help RJD.
11) Janata Dal United – Nitish’s party would get a drubbing in the elections with just 10 seats (-12). Split with BJP will cost it dear. There is a huge Modi wave in state plus party MPs have started deserting the ship. Lalu-RJD alliance will also wean away minority votes.
Others like Telangana Rashtriya Samiti and DMK could bag 8 and 6 seats respectively.
NDA under the leadership of Modi will emerge as the single largest pre-poll coalition. President would invite him to explore govt. formation opportunities. In next post we will see who is likely to support BJP / NDA and whether it can form govt.
In the meantime your thoughts please….
State / UT | Seats | UPA | NDA | Others | SP | BSP | JDU | Left | BJD | AIADMK | YSR | TDP | AAP | TRS | TMC |
Andhra Pradesh | 42 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 8 | |||||||
Arunachal Pradesh | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||
Assam | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||
Bihar | 40 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 10 | ||||||||||
Jharkhand | 14 | 4 | 10 | ||||||||||||
Goa | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||||||||||||
Gujarat | 26 | 5 | 21 | ||||||||||||
Haryana | 10 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||
Himachal Pradesh | 4 | 1 | 3 | ||||||||||||
Jammu & Kashmir | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |||||||||||
Karnataka | 28 | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
Kerala | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | ||||||||||
Madhya Pradesh | 29 | 5 | 24 | ||||||||||||
Chattisgarh | 11 | 1 | 10 | ||||||||||||
Maharashtra | 48 | 14 | 28 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||||
Manipur | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Meghalaya | 2 | 2 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Mizoram | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Nagaland | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Orissa | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |||||||||||
Punjab | 13 | 3 | 10 | ||||||||||||
Rajasthan | 25 | 4 | 21 | ||||||||||||
Sikkim | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Tamil Nadu | 39 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 | |||||||||
Tripura | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |||||||||||
UP | 80 | 8 | 30 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 1 | ||||||||
Uttarakhand | 5 | 1 | 4 | ||||||||||||
West Bengal | 42 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 | ||||||||||
Andaman | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
Daman & Diu | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
Dadra&Nagar | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||||||||||
Delhi | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |||||||||||
Pondicherry | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Lakshadweep | 1 | 1 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Chandigarh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |||||||||||
Total | 543 | 100 | 220 | 38 | 14 | 20 | 10 | 31 | 15 | 27 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
In 2009 | 543 | 225 | 131 | 50 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 |
NDA = BJP + Shiv Sena + Akali Dal
UPA = Congress + NCP + JMM + RLD
This is quite comprehensive… impressive! Congratulations!
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Thanks Viewsplash.
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Pre-poll predictions are bang on. I fully agree but on AIADMK, yesterday courts ordered to prosecute amma for non-filing of tax returns between 91-94. What will be the effect of this judgement.? Anyways still I have no issues what so ever with your pre-poll predictions. Great Job. It is a pleasure to read your blog always. Thank you 🙂
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Thanks Vijay for your support. AIADMK income tax case will not have any repercussions unless she is jailed or something. Could be a trick of Congress to arm-twist Jaya.
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Yes agreed. Thank you:-)
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In Karnataka AAP 1 seat – impossible ….U must be pointing Bangalore South ,If they could get 50,000 votes that is impressive.NO AAP wave in karnataka
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Thanks Umesh Lets see…
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Reblogged this on Politicalbaaba.
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up and bihar will be historic never seen before- i can bet both mula and nitu will be in single figure- spcly up anything possible any thing possible- 50-55 fr bjp lke 1998-modi wave will blown away sp even somewhat bsp too and as per cong they will retain only 2 seats- sonia and rahul seats> and abt app prediction – it will tough fr aap win even 2 seats in delhi let alone winning seats in other place >
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AAP is evolving. It all depends upon candidate selection. BJP has to put up good candidates. It cant put up lousy candidates and ask people to vote for NaMo.
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yea bro need strong 7 candidate- popular and renown – then 7-0 possible, one inside news tdp/bjp alliance sealed- they are just waiting for telegana bill passed in parliament- then they will announce rajnath and babu- in tamilnadu dmdk will go alone- so two ally left for bjp pmk and mdmk!!
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I think MDMK Vaiko already with BJP.
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It’s awesome to visit this web site and reading the views of all colleagues on the topic of this post,
while I am also keen of getting familiarity.
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